Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin dominance remains high, reaching nearly 60% in February 2025. If altseason is to begin, BTC dominance would need to drop below 50%. Market correction triggered major liquidations, with $469.5 million lost on Feb. 3. Altseason 2025 may depend on Bitcoin’s next move – historically, altcoin rallies follow BTC’s growth as investors seek new opportunities.In February, the market saw one of the largest liquidations in history. Was this an opportunity for investors, or is altseason no longer possible in 2025?
In simple terms, altseason occurs when Bitcoin (BTC) dominance—the share of the total crypto market capitalization held by BTC—declines while altcoins gain a larger market share.
However, Bitcoin dominance tends to increase in two main scenarios:
During market corrections, BTC and altcoins also decline. Bitcoin is considered more stable due to its market capitalization, so investors may shift assets into BTC to reduce risk. Bitcoin dominance can increase in a rising market. As BTC’s price climbs, investor interest grows, often leading to FOMO. Higher demand brings more capital, increasing BTC’s market cap. The larger the gap between BTC and altcoins, the stronger Bitcoin’s dominance.Bitcoin’s dominance is currently at a high level. CoinStats data shows it set a new YTD high on Feb. 2, 2025, reaching nearly 60%.
BTC dominance has increased by about 10% compared to last year. In February 2024, it fluctuated around 50%. What does this mean for altcoins? For altseason to begin, BTC dominance typically needs to fall below 50%. As long as Bitcoin dominates the market, it’s unlikely to happen.
Source: CoinStatsWill Altseason 2021 Repeat Itself?
Altcoin season begins when Bitcoin’s dominance declines, but this does not mean that BTC’s price will also fall. Except for a few individual projects, the crypto market has not seen a scenario where Bitcoin collapses while altcoins rally.
In fact, the last altseason, which occurred from February to May 2021, followed Bitcoin’s price surge to new all-time highs (ATH), which continued even after altseason began.
Source: BlockchaincenterAt the end of 2020, Bitcoin’s price rose to nearly $22,500. By Feb. 20, it reached almost $58,000.
This acted as a “warm-up” for investors. Those who profited from Bitcoin’s rise looked for new opportunities, while others, driven by FOMO, turned to altcoins.
Source: TradingViewSmaller market capitalization makes altcoins more sensitive to market changes, and a large capital influx can drive their price up. Bitcoin’s rally laid the groundwork for this shift and triggered the 2021 altseason.
Since 2024, the market has been anticipating a repeat of the 2021 scenario. Given that the last altseason started in February, many expect a similar timeline this time.
Blockchaincenter’s index shows that altcoins neared a key moment in December 2024, reaching 86, its highest since 2021. Many cryptocurrencies hit new ATHs, possibly fueled by AI agent and meme coin hype.
Now, it stands at 45, indicating Bitcoin season.
Whales Increased Ethereum Holdings
Another key indicator for determining the altseason 2025 is the price of Ethereum (ETH). During altseason, the ETH/BTC trading pair rises as Ethereum gains value. Conversely, in Bitcoin season, it usually declines.
Since 2024, the ETH/BTC price has dropped by nearly 50%, from $0.6 to the current $0.28. In February 2025, the chart hit its lowest YTD ratio, indicating that altseason has not yet begun.
Source: TradingViewDuring the 2021 altseason, ETH/BTC surged in April ($0.030) and peaked in May ($0.082). In February, there was a spike after a correction, followed by another drop in March.
Source: TradingViewThe possible altseason of 2025 may share some similarities with that of 2021. At the end of 2020, the market experienced growth, followed by a sharp decline. After multiple corrections from January to March, the altcoin market peaked in May.
If this pattern repeats, the market is currently in recovery mode after a deep correction. However, past trends do not guarantee future results, and the timeline may shift due to industry changes.
Since early February 2025, the crypto market has experienced a significant correction called the “Trump Effect.” After a strong rally in late 2024, prices declined sharply.
According to CoinGlass, the largest market liquidations occurred on Feb. 3, totaling $469.5 million. Ethereum’s losses amounted to $53.8 million, while Bitcoin liquidations reached $69.7 million.
Some view the current market correction as part of the cycle and an opportunity to buy coins. While parts of the market saw losses, whales and institutional investors increased their Ethereum holdings.
Eric Trump, son of U.S. President Donald Trump, posted on X, suggesting that ETH is an asset to watch.
Following this, on-chain data showed large transactions involving Ethereum. World Liberty, a crypto fund linked to the Trump family, sent approximately $175 million worth of ETH to Coinbase.
Reports also indicate that Fidelity purchased nearly $50 million worth of Ethereum.
Ethereum whales, buying the leading altcoin, give hope to the crypto community.
Crypto trader Mags believes that the market capitalization of altcoins will grow sharply soon, but there may be declines before that.
Glassnode notes similarities between the current and 2015-2018 cycles, particularly in Bitcoin corrections. Analysts point out that despite Bitcoin’s significantly higher price compared to 2015-2018, it has not dropped more than 25%:
‘This is a reflection of the impressive demand profile that has emerged for Bitcoin in recent years, in part due to the acceptance of it as a macro asset in finance and the role of spot ETFs as a source of new demand.‘
According to Glassnode, the crypto market is now in the early stages of a bull run. This may indicate that the timeline of crypto cycles has shifted, meaning the altcoin season 2025 might not start in February.
Source: GlassnodeIt is also important to monitor how the crypto market recovers from the recent correction. This decline could be part of the current cycle. The key questions are how long it will last, how much further the market may drop, and when major coins will recover and hold their positions. Only then can we consider the start of altseason or its approach.
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