The Cardano (ADA) price is currently testing key near-term resistance around its 21DMA, and while the likelihood of a modest short-term rebound is growing, the outlook for a sustained rally isn’t great right now.
ADA broke above a short-term downtrend around one week ago and if it can also break above its 21DMA, a bounce to its 200DMA in the $0.70s is likely.
However, in the grand scheme of things, ADA remains stuck well within its recent multi-month $0.50-$1.20ish range.
And the outlook for a major breakout above this range isn’t looking great right now.
That’s principally because 1) risk appetite in the broader market remains poor and 2) a flood of new liquidity is unlikely to materialize anytime soon.
Whilst ardently pro-crypto, the Trump administration is intent on pursuing economic policies (namely tariffs) that are likely to harm the US economy in the short-term, whilst also pushing up inflation.
The prospect of weaker growth is hurting risk assets like stocks and crypto. The fact that Fed policymakers, namely the Fed chair Jerome Powell, are reluctant to cut interest rates due to fears about sticky inflation are making things worse.
Altcoin seasons that have benefitted the Cardano price in the past have typically come at times of mass liquidity injection from the Fed.
But a new flood of liquidity is unlikely to come anytime soon, so major altcoins like Cardano are set to continue to struggle.
What Needs to Happen for a 400% Cardano Price Rally?
If the US economy tilts into recession later this year and the Fed doesn’t respond as aggressively as the market hopes, that could be a recipe for substantially lower crypto price in the coming months.
The Cardano price could easily slip back to test its mid-2024 levels around $0.30.
For a major rally to send the price surging back towards record highs above $3.0 per token, a few things will need to happen.
Firstly, the economy will likely need to be coming through the other end of any recession. That would allow risk appetite in the broader market to pick up.
But for altcoin season to really get going, major easing from the Fed would be required. If the Fed is pumping the market full of QE again, this would be the signal for the potential arrival of a new altcoin season.
Under such circumstances, a 400% rally back to record highs for ADA would be very possible.
In fact, Cardano could even go further than that before the end of Trump’s four-year term.
The Trump administration and current Congress are massively pro-crypto, with both pushing regulatory policies/legislation designed to bolster growth in the industry.
That should lift all boats, including the Cardano price. That said, Cardano lack’s substantial adoption compared to some of its closest rivals like Solana and Ethereum.
Cardano Alternative to Consider – Solaxy (SOLX)
Given its high level of adoption and developer activity, Solana is likely to extend its lead over Cardano in the coming years.
That’s probably going to be reflected in better SOL price performance, too when compared to ADA.
Those confident in Solana’s outlook would do well to accumulate SOL during the current market dip.
However, it might also be a good idea for Solana investors to add highly promising Solana projects like Solaxy (SOLX) to their portfolios as well, given the prospect of even higher gains.
Solaxy (SOLX), a pioneering Layer-2 solution for the Solana blockchain, addresses critical network congestion and scalability issues, enhancing transaction speed and reliability.
By processing transactions off-chain and settling on Solana’s mainnet, Solaxy ensures low fees and high throughput, supporting applications like meme coin trading.
Its presale, launched in December 2024, has raised over $30 million, reflecting strong investor confidence.
Priced at $0.001694, SOLX offers 135% staking APY, with over 8.3 billion tokens staked.
Audited by Coinsult, Solaxy’s robust tokenomics and cross-chain compatibility with Ethereum position it as a compelling investment opportunity within Solana’s thriving ecosystem.
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