Once a dominant theme in the early years of Bitcoin, the digital gold thesis had faded—but current market conditions may be giving it renewed relevance.
The US-China trade war, coupled with rising recession odds in the US, is fueling a shift in sentiment as investors look to hedge against economic uncertainty.
BTC displays growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq—more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik.
BTC correlation with XAU as Equities fall. Source: Alex Svanevik / X.Bitcoin staged a 20% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, closely mirroring gold’s rise to $3,500 despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations.
Bitcoin’s historic correlation with U.S. equities may be loosening, replaced by a stronger alignment with gold.
Why BTC is Gaining Safe-Haven Appeal
The tariff-driven trade wars have sparked fears of inflation and currency devaluation, prompting investors to pivot toward alternative stores of value like gold and Bitcoin.
These concerns have deepened as the U.S. dollar faces downward pressure amid growing expectations for interest rate cuts.
Corporations and consumers generally favor low interest rates for their borrowing advantages, but there’s a tradeoff.
As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to push for aggressive rate cuts from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, inflation risks are resurfacing.
While such policies may stimulate short-term growth and market enthusiasm, they come at the potential cost of unchecked inflation and long-term currency weakness.
The result? A wave of capital flight out of U.S. dollars and Treasuries and into global safe havens like gold, European bonds—and increasingly, Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s emerging role in this rotation shows its evolution into a macro hedge, as global capital begins to treat it more like digital gold than a speculative tech play.
Bitcoin is a ‘Much Bigger Idea Than Gold’
In January, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood described Bitcoin as a “much bigger idea than gold,” citing its potential to gain from gold’s $23 trillion market.
Others believe that gold and Bitcoin should not be seen as competitors because the assets are different in their nature and have different missions.
Unlike gold, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin can be used for payments.
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