Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulate as Short-Term Traders Capitulate: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin has resurged past the $90,000 mark and has benefited long-term holders over short-term holders, but beneath the surface, there is more.

According to recent data shared by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, a clear divergence is emerging between long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders.

While the long-term holders are quietly increasing their positions, the short-term holders, however, appear to be succumbing to fear and uncertainty, offloading assets in times of weakness.

According to the full report, the Net Position Change metric for Long-Term Holders (LTH), defined as those holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, has turned positive for the first time since the last market peak.

This signals a notable shift in market sentiment among seasoned investors who are strategically re-entering the market.

Their steady accumulation marks a departure from the distribution behavior seen in previous months, a pattern often interpreted as cyclical repositioning rather than reactionary moves.

In contrast, Short-Term Holders (STH), those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, are continuing to capitulate. Their Net Position Change remains deep in negative territory.

Historically, such divergence between long- and short-term investor behavior has served as a precursor to broader market recoveries.

Rising Futures Activity and Liquidity Point to Renewed Confidence

While on-chain data paints a picture of strategic accumulation, derivatives market behavior is also flashing bullish signals.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported a significant spike in futures market activity over the past three days, with traders opening Bitcoin positions totaling 57,000 BTC, valued at approximately $5.34 billion at the current price level.

This marks the largest liquidity influx in the futures market in over a year, coinciding with Bitcoin breaking through the $93,000 threshold.

Supporting this surge, data from CoinGlass reveals that long positions on Bitcoin have surged by over 33%, reaching a 24-hour volume of $74.4 billion. Meanwhile, short positions have declined by 27.5%, dropping to $68.2 billion.

As of April 23, long positions now make up over 44% of all open interest. Total futures open interest has also hit a new high of $121.6 billion, led by platforms such as CME and Binance.

This wave of liquidity and leveraged positioning indicates a renewed bullish conviction among traders.

However, on the flip side, there is a heightened leverage that increases market fragility. Any sharp price correction could trigger a cascading series of liquidations, thereby exacerbating volatility.

Still, this influx of capital points to a market preparing for a potential breakout, rather than retreat.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Technical Breakouts Add Momentum

Beyond investor behavior, broader macroeconomic developments have also contributed to Bitcoin’s recent rally.

A significant contributing factor has been the perceived easing of tensions in the ongoing US-China trade war.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on April 22, describing the current tariff standoff as “unsustainable,” have sparked optimism for de-escalation.

President Trump added to this sentiment by stating that tariffs on Chinese goods would be “substantially reduced,” while also reaffirming confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

These geopolitical signals have helped restore investor confidence across risk-on assets, with the cryptocurrency market particularly responsive.

As a result, Bitcoin climbed to as high as $94,000 on April 23, while the total crypto market capitalization surged by 6.7% to $2.94 trillion. Ether also saw a sharp rise, jumping by 13% in the same time frame.

Technical indicators are also aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. CryptoQuant analyst ShayanBTC noted a sharp reversal in Bitcoin’s futures funding rates, which had previously declined during the last correction.

Historically, a simultaneous drop in price and funding rates indicates a reduction in speculative froth.

The recent surge in funding rates suggests renewed interest in long positions and may signal that market sentiment is shifting decisively bullish.

At the broader market level, the total market cap has broken out of a falling wedge pattern, a bullish technical formation.

After successfully retesting the upper resistance of the wedge at $2.6 trillion and breaching the 50-day simple moving average at $2.68 trillion, the market is now targeting the wedge’s technical projection of $3.12 trillion.

Before reaching that target, however, bulls must clear the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which form a significant resistance zone between $2.93 trillion and $2.94 trillion.

Another technical driver behind Bitcoin’s current surge is the short squeeze. In the last 24 hours alone, more than $624 million in crypto positions were liquidated, including $545 million in short positions.

CoinGlass highlighted this as the largest short liquidation event of the year so far, surpassing the $426 million liquidated during a sharp rally on November 6.

As it stands, Bitcoin’s climb back above $90,000 might just be the beginning. It is underpinned by multiple converging factors as mentioned above.

Should these trends continue to align, the current price action may be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major upward leg, a potential challenge to its all-time highs.

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