The persistent downtrend that has weighed on PI since mid-May may have finally run its course, with a golden cross on the daily MACD bolstering the near-term Pi Coin price outlook.
While most altcoins staged recoveries through June, PI continued to slide, signaling a disconnect from broader market tailwinds.
That prolonged sell-off has left PI down 43% over the past month, making it the worst performer among the top 100. But recent bullish momentum may have finally caught up to the token.
Shaky Fundamentals Cloud Bullish Technical Outlook
Despite the bullish technical outlook, Pi Coin’s future may hinge on ecosystem fundamentals as it stands at a crossroads, according to an X post by well-known PI commentator Pi Barter Mall.
In their pessimistic outlook, Pi Barter Mall noted slow ecosystem development as the central obstacle to long-term growth.
The fact of the matter is that the Pi ecosystem continues to struggle with adoption. Its price action remains largely speculative, lacking a meaningful use case to sustain long-term growth.
This has also opened the door to liquidity issues, with short-term speculative trading amplifying deflationary pressure as unlocks continue at an average rate of $7 million PI tokens per day.
PI token unlock schedule. Source: Piscan.The market struggles to absorb the excess supply without a rise in demand to stabilise Pi Coin price moves.
Still, there is an optimistic case. Pi Barter Mall notes that mainstream exchange listings, such as a potential debut on Binance, could serve as major catalysts.
If large-scale applications can be achieved, Pi Barter Mall suggests Pi could reclaim its $1–$3 range with real utility to encourage HODLing over flipping.
Pi Price Analysis: Could a Golden Cross Push a Reversal?
Given the underlying fundamental challenges, a $10 valuation for Pi Coin remains unrealistic—at least until Pi Barter Mall’s optimistic scenario materialises.
That said, Pi coin could make a start on technical momentum alone as the recent breakout of a May-born falling wedge pattern pushes a potential golden cross on the daily.
PI / USDT 1-day chart, falling wedge. Source: TradingView, OKX.The MACD line is on the verge of crossing above the signal line, poised to flash green for the first time since Consensus 2025 unfolded as a sell-the-news event.
Selling pressure appears exhausted, with the RSI rebounding from deep bearish territory at 40—an early signal that buy pressure is returning, opening the door for the next leg up.
If momentum continues, the pattern suggests a potential 40% Pi Coin price rally to $0.8725, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level.
Should bulls push further toward $1, Pi Coin would face a key accumulation zone at the 0.5 Fibonnaci level—a potential catalyst to fuel growth.
However, if the golden cross is delayed or falters, strong support at $0.60 remains the critical downside level to watch for signs of a reversal.
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