Analysts note a near-identical technical setup and market behaviour to that seen in the 2017 market cycle, suggesting that the Ethereum price outlook is yet to reach its cycle peak.
The month-long volatility that has kept the leading altcoin within a tight consolidation range may just be the final stage before a major breakout.
With Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissing ongoing macro uncertainty and affirming the U.S. economy is in a “solid position,” July rate cuts could see risk appetite return.
Ethereum Mirrors 2017 Breakout Setup
In a side-by-side comparison shared by reputable crypto analyst Merlijn, the Ethereum price setup is visually and technically similar to price movements that occurred in 2017.
ETH / USDT 1-week chart, 2025 mirrors 2017 breakout setup. Source: X, @MerlijnTrader.In the 2025 chart, ETH approaches the 50 SMA after months of downward pressure and range-bound movement. It is now consolidating below it in a tight month-long side trend.
This closely resembles the 2017 playbook, when the altcoin faced a similar consolidation under the 50SMA before breaking above in a parabolic rally that kicked off its historic bull run.
If history repeats, pressure could be building towards a similar move. But Merlijn suggests market maturity could send it much further this time around with “no ceiling in sight.”
They point to greater regulatory clarity, institutional involvement through ETFs and corporate treasury holdings, and broader retail adoption as key drivers that could fuel an even more aggressive breakout.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Is $10,000 Now in Focus?
While a five-figure Ethereum price remains a largely speculative target, the 2017-esque setup could open the doors to a breakout of a wider 3-year ascending triangle pattern.
Momentum indicators seem to support a potential move above the 50 SMA. The RSI suggests that buyers continue to overwhelm sellers, holding its position above neutral at 52.
More so, the MACD line is widening its gap above the signal line—evidence of a strengthening uptrend since the mid-April bottom.
A cross above the 50 SMA could trigger a 53% rise to retest the upper bound of the consolidation range noted by Merlijn at $4,000, in line with the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Should Ethereum break through that range, the triangle sets the next key target at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $7,335—a 188% jump from current prices.
In the near term, traders should monitor the immediate stubborn resistance zone around $3,350. A rejection here could delay the breakout and bring a temporary cooling period.
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