Bitcoin touched lows of $98,300 on Sunday, as global markets digest the impact of Donald Trump’s strikes on three Iranian facilities.
This is the first time that the world’s biggest cryptocurrency has slumped into five-figure territory since early May — underlining the significance of this moment.
The U.S. operation is a dramatic escalation in the tensions between Israel and Iran, dragging Washington into the conflict.
Tehran has warned that all options are on the table as it considers next steps, with Trump warning retaliation will be met with force.
Because Wall Street closes on the weekends, BTC gave traders a first glimpse as to how stocks might react at the opening bell.
Analysts had previously predicted that strong institutional interest in ETFs meant Bitcoin would be able to resist a meaningful fall below $100,000.
The coming days will put that theory to the test — and geopolitical developments could end up plunging the current bull market into turmoil.
As often happens during corrections, BTC has gotten off lightly compared with altcoins, which suffered outsized selloffs.
Bitcoin’s fallen by 4.5% over the past seven days — but contrast that to Ether’s 12% drop over the same timeframe, with Solana tanking 13%.
Stock markets in Tokyo gave us an early flavor of what to expect in New York later, with the Nikkei share average plunging by 1% at one point.
What Does Bombing Mean for Markets?
There were some in the “Make America Great Again” movement who didn’t want Trump to target Iran at all — and the big question now is whether this will amount to a “one and done” attack by the U.S.
As uncertainty continues, oil prices are shooting up and have reached a five-month high. That could potentially exacerbate inflation, and may mean the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to cut interest rates any time soon.
We may also see investors dump riskier assets and head to safe havens — including the dollar — which could be bad news for Bitcoin.
Given how BTC often has a close correlation to equities, it’s worth looking at how the S&P 500 has reacted when tensions have previously flared up in the Middle East. Figures from Reuters suggest the flagship index tends to slide by 0.3% in the three weeks after a conflict begins, but jumps by an average of 2.3% two months on. Bitcoin bulls may see these figures as a sign of optimism that bullish momentum may return soon — but history doesn’t always repeat itself, and America has never had such a volatile and unpredictable president.
Iran’s Ties to Crypto
The unfolding developments in the Middle East take on a new dimension when you consider Iran’s complicated relationship with digital assets.
Consumers in the country have widely turned to crypto because of the impact caused by the West’s economic sanctions. Blockchain analytics firms have also uncovered evidence of Tehran officials using digital assets for international payments. Binance also ended up paying a multibillion-dollar fine after it emerged that the exchange had onboarded Iranian consumers — a scandal that led to the resignation of Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
Estimates have previously suggested that the isolated state represents 3.1% of the world’s Bitcoin mining output — a figure that’s diminished in recent years because of power outages.
Days before America’s strikes, it also emerged that hackers with possible links to Israel had drained more than $90 million from Nobitex, Iran’s biggest exchange. The circumstances surrounding this exploit are fascinating, especially considering the platform claims to have seven million users.
Rather than being motivated by financial gain, it appears the perpetrators have burned the funds by sending them to vanity addresses that criticize Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Bitcoin, Ether and Dogecoin were taken — and 24 hours later, Nobitex’s source code was released.
All eyes are now on Tehran. It may attack foreign U.S. bases, close the vital Strait of Hormuz oil route, or pursue negotiations. Iran’s foreign minister suggested that the latter option is unlikely, with America “blowing up” any chance of diplomacy because of its actions in the early hours of Sunday.
With the Crypto Fear and Greed Index flashing a score of 37 — indicating fear has returned to the market once again — crypto investors should proceed with caution, and expect the unexpected.
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