Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been in an uptrend recently, and a 112% weekly surge in whale accumulation stands as a vote of confidence from smart money, adding merit that the near-term Bitcoin Cash price outlook could outpace Bitcoin itself.
The altcoin has notched a 70% gain over the past 3 months in a sustained uptrend since the mid-April market bottom, while most have since seen momentum stall with macro FUD.
Now, with Trump’s tariff letters reopening trade negotiations ahead of the extended August 1 “Liberation Day” pause deadline, new macro uncertainty could see BCH outperform once again.
Still, with the market pricing in expectations of 0.25%–1% rate cuts starting as early as July, macro FUD could give way to risk-on sentiment.
Speculation Outpaces Fundamentals: Is Confidence in BCH Misplaced?
On July 4, analytics firm IntoTheBlock reported a 122.45% increase in large whale transactions involving over $100,000 in BCH, totaling $482 million—a clear sign of accumulation.
Coinglass data also shows BCH Open Interest has soared to levels unseen since its mid-2024 run to $690, climbing 167% since the mid-April market bottom to hit $503 million.
BCH Open Interest mirrors mid-2024 run. Source: Coinglass.Speculators are increasingly active in BCH price moves, but a negative funding rate of -0.009% signals growing demand for short positions—traders are betting on a price decline.
This bearish sentiment reflects weak on-chain fundamentals.
Daily active BCH addresses have hit a six-year low, underscoring that the recent rally is being driven more by speculation than real network adoption.
With over 81% of Bitcoin Cash holders in profit, this speculative environment raises the risk of a sell-off and the formation of a local top if traders move to realise gains.
Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: Can BCH Continue to Outpace the Market?
While Bitcoin Cash remains far from flipping Bitcoin in market cap, the formation of a 15-month falling wedge could set the stage for mid-term outperformance.
BCH now approaches a key confluence zone where an ascending channel forming since the mid-April market bottom meets the wedge’s resistance—a potential breakout setup.
BCH / USDT 1-week chart, 15-month falling wedge pattern. Source: TradingView, Binance.In this bullish scenario, immediate resistance at $530 stands as the gateway to a projected technical target of $990, representing a 96% upside in line with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
However, momentum indicators urge caution. The RSI is nearing the overbought threshold at 65—a push above 70 could invite selling pressure as buyers risk exhaustion.
Meanwhile, the MACD line—while still positive—shows weak demand as it moves in close parallel with the signal line, raising the risk of a bearish crossover if bulls lose control.
If the breakout fails, a corrective move could see Bitcoin Cash fall back to retest lower supports, with the worst-case scenario pointing to a 50% drop toward the mid-April bottom at $246.
More likely support may be found around the 0.5 Fibbonnaci level—a common bottom marker for corrections—around $388.
As several top-ranking altcoins eye fundamental catalysts—most notably multiple spot ETF decisions expected by year-end—resilience to macro FUD alone may not be enough to keep Bitcoin Cash in the spotlight.
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