Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 and Ethereum $10,000 by the end of 2025.
In a recent blog post, Hayes laid out his thesis, tying the potential price surge to U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies and what he describes as a shift to a wartime economy.
Crypto to Thrive Under Trump’s Industrial Strategy, Says Arthur Hayes
According to Hayes, the return of Trump has ushered in a credit-heavy economic strategy designed to increase industrial output, especially in areas like rare earths and defense manufacturing.
Hayes believes this approach, which mirrors aspects of economic planning in China, will flood the system with credit. That, he argues, will create favorable conditions for risk assets, especially crypto.
“If we are to remain beautiful and prosperous, to which instrument within the financial markets must we tune our ears?” Hayes wrote, comparing financial markets to music and investing to dance.
He believes this wave of government borrowing will be indirectly supported by stablecoins, as issuers increasingly invest user funds into U.S. Treasury bills. As crypto adoption grows, so does the capital held in stablecoins, money that flows into government debt markets and helps fund the federal deficit.
According to Hayes, this forms a loop between crypto and traditional finance: credit creation boosts crypto demand, stablecoins funnel cash into Treasuries, and the government recycles that capital into more credit. He calls it a “credit waltz.”
Hayes also suggested that Trump-era regulatory changes, such as allowing 401(k) retirement funds to include crypto or potentially eliminating capital gains tax on digital assets, could deepen institutional involvement in the space.
While Bitcoin remains his primary focus, Hayes believes Ethereum may outperform in the next cycle. He cited renewed institutional interest in Ethereum and shifting attention from faster chains like Solana back to larger, more established assets.
With just over 5 months left until the end of 2025, Hayes is betting that aggressive fiscal policies and looser financial conditions will drive crypto to new highs.
His predictions reflect a growing narrative among crypto advocates: that a highly leveraged, credit-fueled economy will benefit digital assets more than ever before.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Eye Long-Term Highs, But Short-Term Resistance Looms
While Arthur Hayes has projected long-term price targets of $250,000 for Bitcoin and $10,000 for Ethereum, current technical indicators suggest that both assets may encounter short-term resistance before any further upward movement.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at around $118,200, up 8.7% in the past week. However, despite the price surge, 24-hour trading volume has declined by over 10%, down to $49.2 billion, suggesting weaker momentum behind the rally.
Analysts caution that the recent rise lacks strong follow-through, a warning sign for traders expecting an imminent breakout.
According to Glassnode lead analyst James Check, the lack of growing volume raises doubts about Bitcoin reaching the $200,000 mark this year.
He emphasized that while Bitcoin has crossed the initial barrier at $120,000, it must firmly establish support above successive resistance levels—$130K, $140K, and $150K—to validate such a bullish trajectory.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin recently filled the CME gap at $117,255–$116,675 and is now testing the key resistance zone between $118,270 and $119,530.
Source: TradingViewThe Elliott Wave pattern suggests the fourth wave correction may be complete, with the fifth wave potentially forming now. However, due to waning momentum, this wave could be truncated, meaning a lower high may form before resuming a stronger trend later in the cycle.
Source: TradingViewLonger-term, some chart watchers suggest Bitcoin is in the early stages of a rising channel targeting the $340,000 mark, aligning with cycle-based models pointing to a peak around late 2025.
Ethereum (ETH), meanwhile, is trading near $3,688 after a 1.2% rise in 24 hours. ETH remains 24.5% below its all-time high, yet technical indicators show strength. On-chain activity has surged, with daily active addresses reaching 463,880 and network fees jumping over 475% since early July, a sign of increased usage and demand.
Analysts point to Ethereum’s RSI, which recently signaled a long-term “buy,” historically preceding major rallies. A recent chart analysis shows ETH forming a bullish Cup & Handle pattern and coiling within a rising channel. Fibonacci projections offer long-term targets of $5,790, $8,513, and potentially $13,000 over a multi-year horizon.
While short-term resistance and pullbacks remain likely, especially as ETH tests the $4,100 level again, technical signals suggest Ethereum’s long-term bullish structure remains intact.
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