The crypto market is up today, with most of the top 100 coins per market turning green. The cryptocurrency market capitalization has dropped by 2.7% over the past 24 hours, but it still holds above $4 trillion, now standing at $4.03 trillion. At the same time, the total crypto trading volume is at $148 billion, lower than the ~$220 billion level we’ve been seeing lately.
TLDR:
Crypto market cap holds above $4 trillion; The majority of the top 100 coins and all top 10 coins are green today; BTC trades at $118,976 and ETH at $3,886; BNB hits new ATH of $852; BTC could hit $132,000 soon and $150,000 by year-end; The probability of ETH hitting $6,000 by 25 December has more than quadrupled. US ETH spot ETFs hit the 16th inflow day in a row; US BTC spot ETFs record positive flows of $130.69 million; ’Expect a smoother climb for BTC, and a wilder ride for ETH’; Market sentiment is set firmly on the lower edge of the greed zone.Crypto Winners & Losers
By the time of writing, all top 10 coins per market capitalization have appreciated over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.6% in a day, now trading at $118,976. This is the second smallest increase today.
At the same time, Ethereum (ETH) is up by 2.8% and is now trading at $3,886.
Tron (TRX) increased the least: 0.2% to the price of $0.3224.
On the other hand, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated the most in this category. It’s up 6.6%, currently changing hands at $848. The coin surged to its new all-time high of $852 today.
In the top 100 coins category, three coins recorded double-digit increases.
SPX6900 (SPX) is the highest among these: it’s up 12.1% to $2.22.
It’s followed by Optimism (OP) and Ethena (ENA) with 11.2% and 10.7% to $0.8133 and $0.6811, respectively.
Fewer than 10 coins in this category are down. The highest drop among these is 5.9% by Curve DAO (CRV), now trading at $1.02.
Others are down 2.3% and less per coin.
Overall, the market keeps reacting to positive signals, including higher adoption, while defying negative factors, including macroeconomic pressures.
Though not everyone agrees, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin could break from its historical four-year cycle and post significant gains in 2026. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” he said.
‘52% Chance of BTC Hitting $150,000 by Year-End’
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of Ledn, commented on BTC’s recent performance, looking at the short-term wave count.
“As all waves in the direction of the trend can be broken down into wave sub-waves, we look at the blue line in the chart below and can clearly see that we are in the process of completing wave 4 of wave iii,” he says, adding that, once completed, wave iii could complete by rallying to some $132,000.
Source: LednHe continues:
“A corrective wave iv will likely follow as we see early profit takers come into play, and we will sell off to somewhere in the region of $120,000 before the rally into year-end to $136,000 to $142,000 to complete Wave 5.”
Meanwhile, Nick Forster, Founder at onchain options platform Derive.xyz, argued that “Mike Novogratz’s $150,000 prediction isn’t some moonshot anymore. Options markets now imply a 52% chance of BTC hitting $150,000 by year-end.”
“What’s even more interesting is the volatility differential: BTC’s implied December volatility is just 30%, while ETH’s is 60%. So expect a smoother climb for BTC, and a wilder ride for ETH.”
Source: Derive.xyz, AmberdataFurthermore, ETH’s upside bets are exploding, Forster says. The probability of ETH hitting $6,000 by 25 December has more than quadrupled, from just under 7% at the start of July to over 30%. “That’s a massive re-pricing of tail risk,” he concluded.
Levels & Events to Watch Next
At the time of writing, BTC trades at $118,976. Its lowest point today was $117,914, hitting a daily high of $119,754 soon after. It has pulled back somewhat since. Overall, it’s unchanged in a week and is up 10.7% in a month. As July nears its end, the coin shows strength and resilience.
Investors are waiting to see if BTC will retake its ATH level, which would indicate another move higher.
Also, Bitcoin may see some increased volatility in the short term, following a $9.7 billion exit by a Satoshi-era whale.
Moreover, Ethereum is currently trading at $3,886, rising significantly over the weekend, from $3,621 seen on Friday.
It started the day at $3,762, surging over the 24 hours to the current level. Its highest point today is $3,936. There is little doubt in many analysts’ minds that ETH will reach the much-anticipated $4,000 very soon.
As seen in the chart below, it’s been working towards it for the entire July. It’s up 2.7% in a week and 60.3% in a month, outperforming BTC.
That said, per historical data, an August rally could potentially push the price of ETH as high as $6,000, per certain analyses.
Furthermore, the crypto market sentiment has stayed mostly unchanged over the past few days. The crypto fear and greed index has remained in the greed territory for nearly three weeks now.
Currently, it stands at 67 today, compared to 64 yesterday, signaling ongoing positivity among investors, with a healthy dose of caution.
Meanwhile, the US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows on the previous day of trading. They recorded $130.69 million on 25 July. The cumulative net inflow now stands at $54.82 billion.
On Friday, six funds saw positive flows, and one saw outflows. BlackRock is back on top, taking in $92.83 million, followed by Ark&21 Shares’ $30.27 million. At the same time, Grayscale lost $50.5 million.
At the same time, with Friday’s inflow of $452.72 million, the US ETH ETFs recorded 16 consecutive days of positive flows, still moving towards hitting a new record. The surge in price is fueling institutional interest. The cumulative net inflow is now $9.33 billion.
Four funds recorded positive flows, with BlackRock leading the list with $440.1 million. On the other hand, $23.49 million flowed out of Grayscale.
Additionally, Bitwise’s Hougan argues that ETH ETF demand could reach $20 billion within the next year. This would be equivalent to 5.33 million ETH at current prices.
Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed firm aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, added another 780 BTC to its treasury, bringing the total to 17,132 BTC since December 2024.
Furthermore, SharpLink Gaming bought 77,210 ETH over the weekend for $295 million, now holding 438,017 ETH in total.
In South Korea, crypto exchanges paid their customers $87 million worth of interest on their fiat deposits in the past 12 months.
Quick FAQ
Why did crypto move against stocks today?The crypto market increased over the last 24 hours, and the stock market closed higher on Friday. The S&P 500 is up by 0.4%, the Nasdaq-100 increased by 0.23%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47%. The stock market reacted positively to quarterly results published by major tech companies.
Is this rally sustainable?For now, the rally is still sustainable. Analysts argue that the prices have room to climb higher. That said, they’re still warning that factors originating from the US, such as tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s position on the industry, may have a delayed effect on the market.
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