Bitcoin Price Prediction: $218M Satsuma Raise and SMA Retest Hint at $123K Breakout

Bitcoin is trading just above $114,000, defending its ascending trendline and 50-day SMA, a key confluence zone that traders often watch for bullish continuation. This technical retest comes as institutional momentum heats up: Satsuma Technology just raised $218 million in BTC-denominated funding, adding to a broader wave of long-term capital moving into Bitcoin.

With higher lows forming since April and major players like pension funds and SBI Holdings expanding crypto exposure, the setup for a breakout toward $123K is becoming harder to ignore.

Satsuma’s Bold Bitcoin Bet

London-based Satsuma Technology has made headlines with a $217.6 million convertible credit note, the first of its kind in the UK to be fully subscribed in Bitcoin.

This funding round, backed by Pantera Capital, Kraken, Blockchain.com, and UK asset managers overseeing more than £300 billion, outperformed its target by 63%.

Despite the positive momentum, Satsuma’s stock slipped 14%, a move analysts attribute to profit-taking and short-term volatility. CEO Henry Elder confirmed the capital will support their plan to fuse decentralized AI infrastructure via Bittensor with a Bitcoin-native treasury strategy.

Currently holding 1,126 BTC at an average entry of $115,149, Satsuma’s position is nearly break-even, reflecting firm conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory amid broader market turbulence. The raise aligns with a growing macro trend: $7.8 billion in crypto asset acquisitions were disclosed last week, with $2.7 billion flowing into Bitcoin alone.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Setup Points to Breakout

Bitcoin is showing notable technical strength. Price action around $114,980 is consolidating just above two key supports:

The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $112,860 Long-term ascending trendline stretching back to April.

This confluence zone, where resistance has flipped into support, is often a bullish continuation signal.

Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

RSI is about to cross above 50, which could be the start of the bullish momentum. The chart shows a broad ascending triangle with higher lows and accumulation below $123,206. A break above this level could unleash the buyers towards $131,337 and $138,680.

If the trendline holds, it’s a stair-step rally. But if it breaks below $111,995 it could shift the sentiment and open the door for a drop to $105,225 or $99,500. Volume confirmation and a bullish engulfing candle above $115,000 would be the perfect entry for swing traders.

BTC Trade Setup (Short-Term):

Entry: Break above $115,000 Targets: $123,200 Stop-Loss: Below $113,800

If this triangle breakout confirms, bulls could regain control, especially if paired with renewed institutional inflows and ETF stability.

Institutions Double Down on BTC

In the U.S., the Michigan State Retirement System just tripled its Bitcoin ETF exposure, adding 200,000 shares of the ARK 21Shares BTC ETF to its portfolio, now valued at $11.4 million. This comes despite over $1.4 billion in outflows across U.S. ETFs last week, signaling long-term conviction.

Michigan also holds $13.6 million in Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust, unchanged since 2024. Though crypto remains a small slice of its $19.3 billion portfolio, analysts say the Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin is increasingly attractive for pension strategies seeking asymmetric returns with manageable risk.

Across the Pacific, Japan’s SBI Holdings is awaiting approval for the country’s first Bitcoin-XRP ETF. If greenlit, it would be listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange — unlocking institutional access in a tightly regulated market. A second ETF, blending gold and crypto, is also in the pipeline.

These developments could dramatically boost Asian inflows, especially if Japan’s Financial Services Agency reclassifies crypto under the FIEA statute — a shift that could redefine institutional access across the region.

What’s Next for BTC?

With BTC holding support near $115K and institutional narratives strengthening across the U.S., U.K., and Japan, the foundation is set for a bullish continuation. If the ascending triangle plays out, Bitcoin could break through $123K resistance and revisit $131K or $138K in the near term and possibly set the stage for a Q4 run toward $250K or higher.

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