Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and co-founder of Real Vision, claims that crypto adoption could reach 4 billion users by 2030, driving market capitalization to $100 trillion.
Pal argues that crypto wallets are expanding at twice the rate of internet IP addresses during the 1990s, creating what he calls a comparable adoption trajectory.
The prediction would require crypto to jump from today’s $4 trillion market cap to $100 trillion by 2032-2034, powered by two forces he identifies as adoption and monetary debasement.
Source: X/@RaoulGMIThe Numbers Behind Pal’s Bold Forecast
According to his framework, debasement explains 90% of crypto price action, while adoption drives outperformance against traditional inflation hedges, such as gold.
Source: X/@RaoulGMIThe prediction has triggered pushback from critics who question whether wallet proliferation genuinely represents unique users or creates misleading signals of adoption.
Pal’s analysis builds on current crypto adoption metrics, which show 820 million active wallets globally as of 2025, with software wallet downloads surpassing 520 million worldwide.
However, research by venture capital firm a16z reveals significant overcounting in these figures, suggesting only 30-60 million real monthly transacting users exist, representing just 14-27% of the 220 million monthly active addresses measured across blockchain networks.
Critics challenged Pal’s IP address comparison on social media, with user @thejustinfagan noting that “a typical home has 1 IP address” while crypto founders can easily create thousands of wallets to inflate community metrics.
To corroborate this claim, a recent study of 1,000 active crypto users in the US and UK also found that 62% manage more than two mobile wallets, primarily due to interoperability issues between blockchain networks.
Pal defended his methodology by pointing out that IP addresses also multiply through smartphones, laptops, VPNs, and different locations, making the wallet comparison “like for like” despite concerns about overcounting.
His macroeconomic thesis finds support in current monetary conditions, as the U.S. M2 money supply reached $22.12 trillion in July 2025, reflecting 4.8% year-over-year growth.
The U.S. national debt has climbed to $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, creating conditions that historically favor alternative stores of value.
Market Reality Check: Can Crypto Reach $100 Trillion?
Institutional adoption has accelerated with the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have attracted over $54.75 billion in net inflows since their approval in January 2024.
Stablecoins have also emerged as a key driver of adoption, settling $6.3 trillion in payments over the 12 months to February 2025, representing 15% of global retail cross-border payments.
JPMorgan’s blockchain platform processes $2 billion daily through its JPM Coin system, while major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, explore stablecoin offerings.
Yet, reaching 4 billion users would require crypto to serve half the world’s population, a massive leap from current estimates, which range from 500 million to 659 million users.
For context, achieving $100 trillion market capitalization would approach the size of global equity markets, currently valued at approximately $110 trillion.
Meanwhile, banking industry groups have warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could trigger deposit flight similar to the 1980s money market fund crisis, when money market funds grew from $4 billion to $235 billion in seven years.
Some experts have argued that user experience and privacy concerns are the primary factors preventing institutional participation, citing complex interfaces and seed phrase management as the main obstacles to mainstream adoption, with many calling for account abstraction solutions.
Privacy advocates, such as Petro Golovko, also warn that public blockchain transparency creates fundamental adoption barriers by exposing financial data that institutions and individuals prefer to keep private.
Moreover, regulatory developments have also contributed to this growth, with the EU’s MiCA regulation introducing comprehensive oversight, while the U.S. The GENIUS Act establishes a framework for the stablecoin industry’s growth.
Pal has advised followers to maintain long-term positions rather than worry about short-term volatility, stating that “it will all play out with or without your endless fretting.”
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