Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has released his most audacious Bitcoin prediction yet, forecasting the cryptocurrency will reach $3.4 million by 2028.
The prediction hinges on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implementing yield curve control policies that could trigger massive money printing, creating what Hayes calls a “once in a century change of the global monetary architecture.“
Trump Administration Targets Federal Reserve Control
Hayes, who manages the Maelstrom investment fund, bases his calculation on an estimated $15.229 trillion in combined Federal Reserve and commercial banking credit growth through 2028.
His model assumes the Fed will purchase 50% of new Treasury debt issuance while bank credit expands by $7.569 trillion during Trump’s remaining term.
The analysis focuses on Bessent’s plan to regain control of the Federal Reserve through strategic board appointments and regulatory pressure.
Hayes nicknamed the Treasury Secretary “Buffalo Bill” for his anticipated dismantling of the Eurodollar banking system, comparing the strategy to seizing control of foreign non-dollar deposits worth an estimated $34 trillion globally.
Trump needs four seats for a Federal Reserve Board of Governors majority to manipulate short-term rates through the Interest on Reserve Balances mechanism.
Hayes identifies potential allies in Governors Bowman and Waller, who dissented at recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings, as well as newly confirmed Stephen Miran, bringing Trump’s camp to three supporters.
Source: SubstackFed Governor Lisa Cook faces mounting pressure to resign over alleged mortgage fraud accusations from Federal Housing Finance Agency head Bill Pulte.
The Department of Justice is reviewing whether to seek a grand jury indictment for bank fraud, which Hayes believes will force Cook’s departure by early 2026.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team plans to replace Fed district bank presidents during the February 2026 elections.
Hayes argues that the administration only needs three out of four new voting governors to secure Federal Open Market Committee control, which will enable the printing of money to purchase Treasury debt that private markets won’t buy.
Stablecoin Infrastructure to Absorb Global Banking Deposits
In his last month’s blog post, Hayes outlines how Bessent could redirect $10-13 trillion in Eurodollar deposits by threatening to withdraw Federal Reserve support for foreign banks during future financial crises.
This policy shift would force Eurodollar depositors toward compliant stablecoin issuers like Tether, which invest exclusively in U.S. bank deposits and Treasury bills.
The strategy extends beyond traditional banking to capture $21 trillion in Global South retail deposits through U.S. social media platforms equipped with crypto wallets.
Hayes envisions WhatsApp providing seamless stablecoin payment functionality to users in countries like the Philippines, effectively creating digital dollar bank accounts for billions while bypassing local banking regulations.
Central banks in emerging markets would lose monetary control as citizens adopt dollar-pegged stablecoins for daily transactions.
Local governments lack effective responses beyond internet shutdowns, while the Trump administration could wield sanctions against officials who resist stablecoin proliferation by threatening their offshore wealth holdings.
European deposits face similar pressure as Hayes predicts the euro’s collapse due to Germany-first and France-first policies splintering the currency union.
Adding European bank deposits of $16.74 trillion creates a total addressable market of $34 trillion for stablecoin conversion.
The forced adoption would create price-insensitive demand for Treasury bills, allowing Bessent to offer yields lower than Fed Funds rates while maintaining profitability for stablecoin issuers.
This mechanism could give the Treasury control over short-term interest rates regardless of Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Hayes Exits HYPE Position Despite Bold Predictions
Despite his bullish long-term outlook for DeFi protocols, Hayes recently sold his entire HYPE position for $823,000 profit, citing the need to fund a Ferrari Testarossa deposit.
The sale involved 96,628 tokens just weeks after he predicted 126x gains for Hyperliquid at Tokyo’s WebX conference.
The timing coincided with the massive token unlocks beginning on November 29, when 237.8 million HYPE tokens, worth $11.9 billion, will create $500 million in monthly sell pressure over 24 months.
Hayes warned through the Maelstrom Fund that current buyback mechanisms can only absorb $85 million per month.
A major whale also withdrew $122 million worth of HYPE tokens, identified as Techno_Revenant, with $90 million in unrealized gains from nine-month holdings.
Popular trader Ansem joined the exodus, selling $492,000 worth of tokens amid concerns about supply.
Despite maintaining his $250,000 Bitcoin target for 2025, Hayes cautioned investors against expecting overnight wealth.
He criticized short-term thinking that leads to liquidations while defending Bitcoin’s long-term performance against traditional markets when adjusted for inflation.
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