Bitcoin is back in all-time high territory. The US government shutdown’s helped propel the world’s biggest cryptocurrency beyond $125,000 as investors dump dollars and seek harder assets instead.
We’re also now into the fourth and final quarter of the year, which is when BTC tends to perform strongest. It’s surged by an average of 79.6% in past Q4s. Total returns stood at 47.7% in 2024, and 56.9% in 2023.
So… what are going to be the dominant themes for Bitcoin as 2025 draws to a close? Cryptonews has assembled a panel of experts for their insights.
For Bitwise’s senior investment strategist Juan Leon, BTC basking in record prices is no surprise given strong demand from ETFs and corporations — not to mention the “favorable macro conditions” we’re seeing right now. When asked what to keep an eye on in Q4 in the crypto industry more widely, he added:
“The continued pace of institutional adoption, regulatory developments, progress toward the mainstream commercialization of stablecoins and tokenization, potential new product launches, and new use cases and technical innovation.”
Exodus CFO James Gernetzke said “the speed of innovation in the market continues to astound” — not to mention how “broad and deep” it is.
“New products are coming to market at an ever increasing pace and with a wide variety from stablecoins to tokenized RWAs (real-world assets such as tokenized stock). And government agencies in the US are moving quickly to support financial innovation as witnessed by recent announcements from the SEC and other government agencies.”
Hashdex’s chief investment officer Samir Kerbage told Cryptonews that ongoing regulatory developments in the US and the EU are a crucial theme for Q4 — with treasury companies and potentially some nation-states now exploring Bitcoin as a reserve asset. With one rate cut already taking place, he believes the Fed’s policies will continue to set the tone for risk appetite around the world.
But others have cautioned against getting too carried away in the current bull run. Two Prime CEO Alexander Blume says “this is a precarious rally that may not sustain itself” — and although he’s optimistic about BTC’s longer-term prospects, he wants to see greater stabilization and true support, plus cooler funding rates.
Bitcoin breaking into uncharted territory is often accompanied by breathless news stories, along with a groundswell of investment from newcomers hoping to make a quick profit. But is it unwise for those who have been sitting on the sidelines to buy in when prices are elevated? Bitwise’s Juan Leon says BTC can still prove attractive for those in it for the long term, telling us:
“Every investor should do their own due diligence and we always recommend investors become educated before investing. Having done that, and acknowledging the prospect for interim volatility, we believe Bitcoin’s risk-reward is compelling for investors with a multi-year investment horizon.”
James Gernetzke from Exodus agreed that curious consumers “should research Bitcoin as much as they can” before jumping in with both feet.
“With more research, they are highly likely to get orange pilled and start buying. But don’t take my word for it, take the example of JPMorgan, a historically anti-Bitcoin firm. It raised its price target to $165,000 recently — indicating plenty of room in the near term.”
A move to $165,000 would be a 33% jump from current levels — and as targets go, it’s a relatively tame one at that. Some analysts insist we could see BTC jump to $200,000, taking its market capitalization to $4 trillion. That would be enough to overtake Google, Apple and Microsoft — and put Bitcoin within touching distance of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company.
Morgan Stanley recently recommended its clients to invest between 2% and 4% of their portfolios into crypto — and Samir Kerbage from Hashdex agrees that this is a sensible course of action to take.
“As crypto is a very volatile asset class, it is recommended to invest only a small portion of the portfolio (1% to 5%) and to rebalance the portfolio every now and then. This limits the downside of your portfolio as a whole and benefits from the rebalance of high volatility assets, taking profit when crypto goes up and buying ‘cheap’ when crypto is experiencing declines.”
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