US National Debt Nears $38 Trillion, Adds $6B Daily as Gold and Bitcoin Hit ATH – Is BTC the Answer?

The United States’ (US) national debt has surged to $37.88 trillion as of October 2, 2025, growing at a rate of $69,891 per second, or approximately $6 billion daily, over the past year, according to Congressman David Schweikert’s Daily Debt Monitor.

The debt has increased by $2.2 trillion since October 2024, amounting to $283,098 per household.

Meanwhile, the average interest rate on total marketable debt stands at 3.415 percent, resulting in the government paying $241.26 billion in interest to trust funds over the past 12 months.

The accelerating debt trajectory has coincided with massive moves in alternative assets, as Bitcoin surged past $125,000 for the first time on October 5 and gold hit a record $3,924.39 per troy ounce on October 7.

The dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973, down over 10% year-to-date and having lost 40% of its purchasing power since 2000.

Bloomberg analysts described the phenomenon as a “debasement trade,” with investors fleeing major currencies for perceived safety in Bitcoin, gold, and silver.

Assuming the average daily growth rate over the past three years continues, the U.S. will reach $38 trillion by approximately December 9, 2025, with each additional trillion dollars accumulated in roughly 169 days.

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts net interest as a share of outlays to reach 13.55% in fiscal year 2025, rising to 14.11% by 2027.

Approximately 31% of publicly held marketable debt is expected to mature within 12 months as of Q3 2025, creating significant rollover risk.

Dollar Weakness Fuels Unprecedented Asset Correlation as Safe Havens Rally With Stocks

The correlation coefficient between gold and the S&P 500 reached a record 0.91 in 2024, meaning the traditional safe-haven asset and risk assets moved in tandem 91% of the time, according to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter.

The S&P 500 has surged 40% over six months, adding $16 trillion in market capitalization, while the Nasdaq 100 posted six consecutive monthly gains for only the seventh time since 1986.

JPMorgan analysts, including Meera Chandan, wrote that “the familiar pattern of dollar debasement against alternative reserve assets amid Washington dysfunction” has resurfaced, with precious metals rallying in a broad-based fashion similar to moves following the global financial crisis and years of quantitative easing.

Gold has climbed nearly 47% year-to-date in 2025, boosted by over 1,000 tons of central bank purchases, led by China and India, alongside Federal Reserve rate cuts that have weakened the dollar.

The unusual simultaneous rally across safe havens, risk assets, real estate, and inflation indicators suggests markets are pricing in a new era of monetary policy, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

The Federal Reserve is cutting rates to 4.0% annualized inflation since 2020 and to 2.9% core PCE inflation for the first time since the 1990s, while market-based inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years continue to rise beyond central bank control.

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin now rank among the top 10 largest assets globally, with gold valued at $26.3 trillion, silver at $2.7 trillion, after gaining over 60% year-to-date, and Bitcoin reaching a $2.5 trillion market cap.

The political situations across the US, Japan, and Europe provide additional momentum, with the yen tumbling 1.6% against the dollar as pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi’s victory boosted expectations for fiscal stimulus.

At the same time, the euro also slipped amid fresh political uncertainty in France.

The ongoing US government shutdown, which began on October 1 due to partisan budget disagreements, has furloughed 800,000 federal employees, while another 700,000 work without pay.

The shutdown has delayed critical economic data releases, including employment numbers and inflation reports, adding to market uncertainty and supporting safe-haven asset gains.

Bitcoin Outperforms S&P 500 by 88% Since 2020 as Institutional Adoption Accelerates

Bitcoin has delivered returns vastly exceeding traditional equity benchmarks, with a $100 investment in Bitcoin from the beginning of 2020 worth $1,473.87 by July 2025 compared to just $209.85 for the same investment in the S&P 500, according to OfficialData.Org.

The cryptocurrency is up 32% year-to-date after hitting $125,000, while the S&P 500 has risen 14.43% to $6,715.79.

Ethereum also rallied above $4,600, pushing the total cryptocurrency market capitalization to a record $4.35 trillion, following historical October gains averaging 20% over the past 12 years.

Cryptocurrencies have exploded in adoption as investors seek new ways to retain value amid persistent inflation and dollar debasement concerns.

The Kobeissi Letter warned that the widespread rush into all assets will only widen the historic US wealth divide, with the bottom 50% of households now holding just 2.5% of total U.S. wealth.

Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, job openings have plummeted while stocks have soared, suggesting a generational macroeconomic shift in which asset owners benefit disproportionately.

Technical Indicators Signal Potential Blow-Off Top Before Major Correction

Chart analysis marks the recent peak around $109,360 as “Actual Cycle TOP” with current $125K ATH representing the beginning of the final blow-off phase toward the $140,000-$155,000 target zone.

The “invalidation price watch” sits at $106,000, providing a clear level where this thesis would fail. The timeline suggests this final peak would occur soon, followed by a severe correction.

Bitcoin could push toward $140,000-$155,000 in a final 15-25% blow-off rally before a severe correction this year, with the $106,000 level serving as critical support.

A break below invalidates the blow-off scenario and could signal the start of a major downturn.

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