Bitcoin has mirrored a familiar bullish setup, completing its weekly CME gap fill between $109,680 and $111,310, a technical milestone that last preceded a major rally in late 2024.
The leading cryptocurrency is holding the same higher low structure from which the October 2024 reversal emerged, sparking renewed optimism among traders.
Back then, Bitcoin filled its CME gap at $68,785 before launching a two-month run to $108,000.
Now, analysts at RektCapital note that a bullish divergence is forming on the daily timeframe, hinting that a similar breakout could propel Bitcoin toward $130,000 before Q4 ends.
Bitcoin Market Sentiment Hits 2017 Lows
Crypto traders who have been around since late 2017 say morale is at one of its lowest points in years.
Sentiment in major chat rooms is showing exhaustion and doubt, with many convinced the cycle has ended. Even seasoned traders admit to underperforming this year compared to 2020–2021. Coupled with last Friday’s brutal wipeout, the market feels like a ghost town.
These factors have fueled speculation that Bitcoin topped out after hitting $126,000 ten days ago.
However, both technical patterns and macroeconomic indicators suggest otherwise.
Bitcoin’s funding rate on Binance flipped negative this week, a rare occurrence that has historically marked local bottoms and preceded major rallies.
Source: CryptoQuantOn-chain data also shows large spot exchange outflows, indicating quiet accumulation amid widespread fear.
Gold Indicator Shows Bitcoin Is About to Steal the Spotlight
Meanwhile, gold has outperformed Bitcoin since March, rising 28.12% compared to Bitcoin’s 4.42% decline.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to take the baton from gold once the metal’s rally becomes overextended.
With gold’s RSI hitting an unprecedented 92 and retail investors queuing for physical purchases, the yellow metal may be approaching exhaustion.
The last three instances when gold led, August 2020, September 2024, and early April 2025, were followed by massive Bitcoin rallies.
Source: TradingViewIn 2020, Bitcoin surged from $9,500 to over $45,000 within two months after gold peaked.
If this pattern holds, the current environment could be setting up for another post-gold rotation, potentially propelling Bitcoin toward the $130,000 zone by year-end.
Bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands continue to expand to the most extreme levels ever recorded.
Source: TradingViewEvery historical expansion of this magnitude has led to higher prices, pointing more to a growing volatility that often precedes upside moves.
Additionally, this marks only the third time in six years that Bitcoin has traded negatively halfway through October. On all six previous occasions, BTC closed the month green by October 31.
On the Macro front, CME data indicates a 96.7% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, marking the Fed’s first easing move in over a year.
Lower borrowing costs typically lead to greater liquidity and stronger risk-on appetite, a scenario that historically benefits Bitcoin.
$132K or Sub-$110K? Expert Maps Bitcoin’s Two Possible Paths
Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, told Cryptonews that while the Fed’s dovish stance and rising liquidity are constructive for digital assets, renewed U.S.–China trade frictions and prolonged U.S. government shutdown risks could complicate near-term sentiment.
He pointed to the growing alignment between gold and Bitcoin, noting that “investors increasingly view both Bitcoin and Gold as hard assets hedging against fiscal risks, sovereign debt concerns, and policy uncertainty.”
Ehsani concludes that Bitcoin stands at a key crossroads. “If liquidity tailwinds materialize and institutional accumulation continues, BTC could strengthen toward $132,000 by year-end.”
However, should macro risks resurface or trade tensions escalate, a move below $110,000 remains possible as markets recalibrate.
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