Retail investors chasing Bitcoin exposure through public companies like Metaplanet and Michael Saylor’s Strategy have lost an estimated $17 billion, according to a new report by 10x Research.
Key Takeaways:
Retail investors have lost an estimated $17 billion chasing Bitcoin exposure through companies. Analysts said investors overpaid by roughly $20 billion as firms sold shares far above their Bitcoin holdings’ real value. The report predicts a shift toward disciplined, arbitrage-driven Bitcoin asset managers.The firm said the losses stem from share premiums that once priced these companies far above the value of their Bitcoin holdings, premiums that have now evaporated.
“The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies,” analysts at 10x Research wrote in the report “After the Magic: How Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Evolve Beyond NAV Illusions.”
Retail Investors Overpaid $20B for Bitcoin Exposure, 10x Research Says
Retail investors, they said, “overpaid for Bitcoin exposure by roughly $20 billion,” while companies quietly converted inflated share prices into real BTC on their balance sheets.
The research compared the strategy of these digital asset treasury (DAT) firms to “financial alchemy,” where stock sales at inflated valuations were repeatedly used to buy more Bitcoin.
From a $1 billion BTC base, Metaplanet’s market capitalization surged to $8 billion at its peak before crashing to $3.1 billion, even as it held $3.3 billion in Bitcoin.
“In the process, shareholders lost $4.9 billion in value, while the company managed to accumulate $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin,” the report said.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) followed a similar pattern.
Its shares, which once traded at multiples of three to seven times the firm’s actual Bitcoin holdings, now sit at roughly 1.4 times NAV, erasing much of the speculative premium that defined the last cycle.
According to 10x, this NAV “normalization” could mark a turning point for the sector. Companies now trading near or below their Bitcoin value may represent “pure BTC exposure with upside from future trading profits.”
Analysts argue that the firms that adapt, shifting from hype-driven treasuries to arbitrage-style asset managers, could still generate 15–20% annual returns.
The report concludes that the “magic” may be over, but the shakeout will create a new generation of disciplined Bitcoin asset managers.
As the market matures, only firms with strong capital bases and experienced trading teams “will define the next bull market.”
Novogratz Says Treasury Crypto Boom Has Peaked, Focus Shifts to Survivors
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz believes the wave of new crypto treasury companies has likely hit its peak, with attention now shifting to which existing firms can scale and dominate.
Speaking during Galaxy’s Q2 earnings call, he said, “We’ve probably gone through peak treasury company issuance,” signaling a more competitive phase ahead.
The boom in treasury-based crypto firms was fueled by favorable U.S. regulations, with companies like Strategy, GameStop, Trump Media, and SharpLink allocating reserves to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.
However, Novogratz warned that saturation could make it harder for newcomers to gain traction, especially as Ethereum-focused treasuries like BitMine and SharpLink continue to expand.
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