Ether may be entering the early stages of the type of explosive growth cycle that propelled Bitcoin to a 100x rally since 2017, according to Tom Lee, executive chair of Ether-focused treasury firm BitMine.
Key Takeaways:
Tom Lee says Ether may be entering a “Supercycle” similar to Bitcoin’s 100x rally that began in 2017. ETH is approaching the average cost basis of long-term holders, a level historically linked to strong accumulation. Long-term wallets now hold 27 million ETH, signaling growing conviction despite the recent market pullback.In an X post on Sunday, Lee said the current Ether market resembles Bitcoin’s setup eight years ago, a period marked by deep volatility that ultimately preceded one of the strongest bull cycles in crypto history.
Tom Lee: Bitcoin’s 100x Run Began With a $1,000 Call in 2017
Lee noted that his firm first recommended Bitcoin to Fundstrat clients in 2017 when BTC traded near $1,000.
Since then, Bitcoin suffered several drawdowns of up to 75%, yet still surged more than 100-fold from that initial call.
“We believe ETH is embarking on that same Supercycle,” he wrote, arguing that Ether’s recent weakness reflects doubt, not deterioration.
“To have gained from that 100x Supercycle, one had to stomach existential moments to HODL.”
ETH has trailed Bitcoin for much of 2025, even as the market reached new record highs. Ether notched its all-time high of $4,946 in August, while Bitcoin topped out above $126,000 in October.
Both assets have since pulled back sharply, with BTC down 25% from its peak and ETH sliding more than 35%. Lee framed the retreat as part of the “discounting of a massive future.”
On-chain data suggests Ether may be nearing a critical level for long-term holders.
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci said ETH’s current price, around $3,150, sits just $200 above the average cost basis of long-term accumulators, whom he described as investors who have been “patiently stacking.”
Ether has only fallen below this level once this year, during April’s market shock triggered by President Donald Trump’s global tariff rollout.
According to Kesmeci, long-term conviction in Ether is stronger than ever. Roughly 17 million ETH has moved into accumulation addresses in 2025, pushing the total balance held by long-term wallets to 27 million ETH, up from 10 million at the start of the year.
If ETH slips to the $2,900 level, he said, history suggests it would represent “one of the strongest long-term accumulation opportunities.”
Ether briefly touched a 24-hour low of $3,023 but has since steadied, trading flat around $3,185.
Ethereum Whales Accumulate 7.6M ETH as Market Enters Compression Phase
As repored, Ethereum whales have significantly increased their exposure as ETH hovers near $3,000, a trend analysts say has historically preceded major market reversals.
CryptoQuant data shows wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have accumulated 7.6 million ETH since April, a 52% jump, while smaller holders continue to trim their balances.
The divergence suggests institutional-sized players are positioning for a potential rebound, even as retail remains cautious.
Analysts also point to repeated spikes in Ethereum’s spot trading volume since early November, a pattern commonly seen in late-stage compression phases before large price moves.
Meanwhile, Ethereum network fees have plunged to some of their lowest levels in years, with gas prices dropping to 0.067 Gwei last week as onchain activity slowed following October’s market-wide crash.
During the 2021 bull run, transaction costs on Ethereum’s base layer frequently exceeded $100–$150, driving users toward cheaper alternatives and layer-2 solutions.
However, since the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which optimized gas fees for layer-2 rollups, Ethereum’s fee revenue has collapsed by 99%, according to Token Terminal.
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