Bitcoin is heading into Thanksgiving with fresh momentum after jumping more than 13% from recent lows near $80,000 to trade above $91,000.
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin has rebounded more than 13% into Thanksgiving, reviving hopes that this year could break the holiday’s bearish pattern. History still weighs on sentiment, with Thanksgiving averaging a 0.8% loss. Analysts flag downside risk toward $81,000 unless BTC reclaims $100,000–$105,000.Historically, the US holiday has been unkind to BTC, but this year’s pre-holiday rally is giving traders reason to believe 2025 could become an exception.
Bitcoin Repeats Pre-Thanksgiving Rally, Analyst Flags Holiday Weakness Risk
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said Bitcoin once again followed its familiar pattern, posting a bullish Wednesday rally ahead of Thanksgiving.
“Look we just had a bullish Wednesday too,” he wrote on X, referencing past data that shows strength before the holiday followed by weakness on the day itself.
The record still favors the bears. Bitcoin has posted gains on Thanksgiving only twice in the last 10 years, with sharp declines seen in 2018 and 2020.
According to analyst Daan Crypto Trades, the average performance is a negative 0.8%, reinforcing the day’s reputation as a seasonal headwind.
This year, however, traders are focused less on the calendar and more on where price could go next. Bitcoin is trading just 4% below its highest daily close above $95,000 set last November, putting the long-anticipated $100,000 milestone back into view.
“We have never yet had a $100K Bitcoin Thanksgiving,” analyst Terence Michael wrote, urging traders to stay alert regardless of short-term reversals.
Others are taking a more cautious stance.
Analyst Jelle pointed to resistance between $91,000 and $93,000, warning that with US markets closed for the holiday, price could drift sideways. “Expecting chop below the resistance until after the holiday,” he said.
On-chain signals offer little comfort for bulls looking past the weekend. Analytics firm Glassnode warns that Bitcoin remains structurally weak after losing both its 50-week moving average and key cost-basis levels.
The firm likened current conditions to early 2022, when fading demand led to a prolonged slide. Short-term holder loss ratios have dropped to just 0.07x, a sign that liquidity and conviction are thinning.
If selling pressure intensifies, Glassnode says Bitcoin could retest its “true market mean” around $81,000. To regain control, buyers need to reclaim the $100,000 to $105,000 range, an area tied closely to long-term trend support.
Cathie Wood Calls Liquidity Rebound for Crypto
As reported, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has forecasted that the liquidity squeeze hitting crypto and AI markets will reverse within weeks, driven by three Federal Reserve policy shifts expected before year-end.
Her firm continues aggressively buying crypto equities during the downturn, deploying over $93 million in a single day this week across beaten-down digital asset stocks.
Speaking during ARK’s November market webinar, she identified three temporary liquidity constraints she expects to ease rapidly through Federal Reserve action and reopened government spending.
Wood expects the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening at its December 10 meeting, immediately easing one pressure point.
The government shutdown that caused the Treasury General Account cash buildup has concluded, returning funds to circulation.
The post History Says Thanksgiving Is Bearish for Bitcoin — Can This Year Be Different? appeared first on Cryptonews.
