New analysis suggests Bitcoin’s four-year cycles have been replaced — and the world’s biggest cryptocurrency could rebound to $140,000 at some point in the next 180 days.
According to Copper, the arrival of exchange-traded funds tracking BTC’s spot price have changed this digital asset’s behavior, and given way to what it calls the “cost-basis returns cycle.”
“Across 2024/2025, Bitcoin has exhibited the same repeatable pattern: price breaks to new all-time highs, corrects sharply, and then finds support almost perfectly at its ETF investor cost basis before beginning the next expansion.”
The company’s analysis suggests we have seen this play out three times since these ETFs launched back in January 2024 — with each cycle delivering returns of more than 60%.
Image: CopperCopper also claims this has exposed a significant divide between crypto-focused traders and institutional investors, with some Bitcoin commentators claiming it is “the worst bull market ever.”
So… what exactly causes these sharp corrections once BTC enters price discovery mode? Well, its analysis suggests that institutions rebalancing their portfolios is primarily to blame — an activity that “transforms Bitcoin’s volatility into realized returns.”
“Institutions are not ‘staking sats’ — in fact, most do not care about sats at all now that Bitcoin is accessible through equities-style ETF shares. They care about risk-adjusted contribution to a portfolio.”
Generally speaking, it’s been recommended that institutions allocate somewhere between 2% and 5% into Bitcoin — but a sudden surge in price can have a huge impact.
“Without rebalancing, a modest 2% Bitcoin allocation drifts to 6.2% in less than 180 days during these cycles. A 5% allocation drifts dangerously close to double-digit.”
Copper’s head of research Fadi Aboualfa told Cryptonews that Bitcoin is now at a critical juncture.
“With BTC now trading near its $84,000 cost basis, that pattern points to a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days. If cost basis rises 10% to 15% as in prior cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a target range of $138,000 to $148,000.”
The prospect of a return to all-time highs within the next six months would provide a much-needed dose of “hopium” for traders. However, other analysts have warned there are few catalysts that can drive BTC forwards at the moment. The Federal Reserve’s recent 0.25 percentage point interest rate reduction was largely priced in, with policymakers suggesting there may only be one cut in 2026.
A big test will concern what happens if Bitcoin’s value falls below its cost basis for ETF investors — and whether sell-offs would intensify if institutions spent a prolonged period in the red.
Data from SoSoValue shows inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street have fallen substantially so far in December, and have failed to compensate for eye-wateringly high levels of outflows last month.
Products from the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity now hold 6.57% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, meaning sustained outflows could put the digital asset’s valuation under a lot of pressure.
Further price declines would also create headaches for Strategy, which has now amassed a warchest of 660,625 BTC — well over 3% of BTC’s supply. These acquisitions have largely been funded by debt, with the company admitting it may be forced to begin selling if its mNAV, which compares Strategy’s market value to its BTC holdings, falls below 1.
Strategy’s concerted push to continue buying Bitcoin throughout the bull run means that the average price paid per coin has surged over the past year, giving it less headroom in the event of a bear market. We’ve also been the buffer between Bitcoin’s price and the ETF cost basis erode. Amberdata research suggests “the margin of safety has compressed to levels not seen since early 2024.”
“The early money is patient. Deep profits create holders who can weather drawdowns without stress. The late money is nervous. They have investment committees asking questions and redemption pressure from clients who bought at $100,000.”
Amberdata argues that a fall below $80,000 could prove hugely consequential — and cause a huge change in psychology among investors, as well as a barrage of negative headlines.
A bigger question that might need to be asked is this: should institutions back out of Bitcoin ETFs, will they ever return?
The post Bitcoin Could Hit $140,000 in Next 180 Days, Expert Says appeared first on Cryptonews.
