Bitcoin’s price swings are becoming more restrained, with the cryptocurrency now showing lower volatility than Nvidia shares in 2025, a shift Bitwise says reflects a maturing and more diversified investor base.
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen below Nvidia’s as institutional products broaden its investor base, Bitwise says. The growth of spot ETFs and traditional market access is reshaping how Bitcoin trades and reducing sharp price swings. Bitwise views the calmer price action as a structural shift and expects further institutional entry in 2026.In a report released Wednesday, Bitwise said Bitcoin is likely to remain less volatile than Nvidia (NVDA) through 2026, pointing to a long-term decline in Bitcoin’s price fluctuations over the past decade.
Bitwise Says Institutional Adoption Is Derisking Bitcoin
The asset manager argued that Bitcoin’s growing presence in traditional financial markets is changing how it trades.
“Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the past ten years,” Bitwise said, adding that the trend signals a broader “derisking” of the asset as institutional investors gain exposure through regulated products such as spot exchange-traded funds.
According to Bitwise, the rise of ETFs and other traditional vehicles has expanded Bitcoin’s investor base beyond retail traders and crypto-native funds.
That diversification, the firm said, has helped dampen sharp price moves that once defined the asset.
The data highlights a notable contrast between Bitcoin and Nvidia this year. Bitcoin has moved 68% between its 2025 low of around $75,000 in April and its all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October.
Nvidia, by comparison, has recorded a much wider 120% swing, rising from a low near $94 in early April to a peak of $207 later in the year.
Despite Nvidia’s higher volatility, the chipmaker’s shares have delivered stronger returns.
Nvidia is up roughly 27% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has slipped about 8% since the start of the year as crypto markets have increasingly decoupled from equities.
Bitwise sees the calmer price action as a structural shift rather than a temporary phase. The firm said traditional market forces that once drove extreme crypto cycles, such as leverage-fueled speculation and sharp reactions to halving events, are losing influence.
Looking ahead, Bitwise struck an optimistic tone on Bitcoin’s broader outlook. The firm expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high and break away from the historical four-year cycle that has shaped previous bull and bear markets.
It also predicts deeper institutional involvement in 2026, naming banks such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch as potential entrants.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Selling May Be Nearing Its End: K33
Bitcoin has seen sustained sell-side pressure from long-term holders since 2024, but that trend may be nearing exhaustion, according to a new report from research and brokerage firm K33.
The firm estimates that around 1.6 million BTC, worth roughly $138 billion, has re-entered circulation over the past two years as early investors took profits.
K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said the scale of these movements points to deliberate selling rather than technical factors like wallet consolidation or ETF-related transfers.
The report notes that 2024 and 2025 rank among the largest years on record for long-term supply reactivation, driven not by speculation, but by direct selling into deeper institutional liquidity.
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