Bitcoin is trading near $110,000, and according to JPMorgan, the cryptocurrency may be undervalued compared with gold. In a recent report, the bank said bitcoin’s volatility has dropped sharply, narrowing its gap with the precious metal.
The six-month rolling volatility decreased from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to around 30%, the lowest level on record.
With volatility converging toward gold, bitcoin is now only twice as volatile—a ratio not seen before. JPMorgan estimates that, on a volatility-adjusted basis, bitcoin’s market cap would need to climb about 13%, pushing its price toward $126,000, to reach parity with gold’s $5 trillion in private investment.
According to this model, BTC appears undervalued by approximately $16,000, leaving room for upside if institutions continue to increase their exposure.
Corporate Adoption Accelerates
Institutional flows are shaping the current trajectory of Bitcoin. Corporate treasuries now hold more than 6% of the total supply, a dynamic that JPMorgan likened to central bank quantitative easing, thereby dampening bond volatility. Index inclusions and passive capital inflows reinforce the trend.
Recent examples include Metaplanet (3350), which was upgraded into FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category, and Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA), which announced plans to raise to $5 billion following a $679 million purchase of bitcoin.
At the same time, firms led by industry veterans such as Adam Back are vying to match the treasury positions of MARA Holdings and Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR).
These moves highlight Wall Street’s growing recognition of bitcoin as more than a speculative asset. Instead, it’s being positioned as a long-term digital reserve—complementary to, and in some cases competing with, gold.
Key institutional trends:
Over 6% of the Bitcoin supply now sits in corporate treasuries. Index inclusion is driving passive inflows into BTC. Major firms, such as Metaplanet and Kindly MD, are expanding their holdings.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Key Levels Ahead
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a descending channel that has been in place since mid-August. The price is currently testing the 50-period SMA at $111,332, with resistance at $113,427 acting as a ceiling. A long upper candlestick wick near this level signals persistent selling pressure.
Momentum indicators suggest caution. The RSI at 35 hovers close to oversold, while the MACD histogram remains negative, maintaining a short-term bias tilted bearish. A confirmed breakout above $113,427 could trigger a move toward $116,850 and $120,900.
Conversely, failure to hold $108,695 risks opening the door to $105,150, with deeper support at $101,550.
Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: TradingviewFor traders, the setup is straightforward: a long position becomes attractive on a breakout above $113,427, targeting $116,850–$120,900 with stops below $108,500.
On the other hand, shorts below $108,500 could target $105,150. Looking further ahead, institutional flows and reduced volatility keep the case alive for BTC retesting $130,000, underscoring JPMorgan’s view that bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold.
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