Bitcoin’s bull market may be approaching a decisive moment, according to trader Tony “The Bull” Severino, who says the cryptocurrency could either surge into a parabolic rally or mark the end of its current cycle within the next 100 days.
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin’s volatility is at record lows, with Bollinger Bands signaling a major breakout or breakdown within the next 100 days. Analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino warns of potential “head fakes” before a true move. Others say Bitcoin’s lengthening market cycles suggest the bull run may still have room to grow.In an analysis shared on X on Wednesday, Severino highlighted the Bollinger Bands indicator, a classic volatility tool, which has reached record “tightness” on Bitcoin’s weekly chart.
Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance as Volatility Tightens, Analyst Warns
Historically, such compressions have preceded explosive price movements in either direction.
“For now, BTCUSD has failed to break out above the upper band with strength,” Severino wrote.
“According to past local consolidation ranges, it could take as long as 100+ days to get a valid breakout — or breakdown, if BTC dumps instead.”
The Bollinger Bands measure volatility by plotting standard deviations above and below a moving average. When the bands contract, it signals reduced volatility, a setup often followed by major directional moves.
Severino warned, however, that “head fakes,” false breakouts before a real move, are common in such conditions.
“Expanding from a squeeze setup like this can lead to head fakes. We might have seen one with this latest move above $126,000, and we could see another dip before a real breakout higher,” he cautioned.
Bitcoin currently trades around $122,700, down slightly from its recent all-time high. Analysts have been debating whether the bull market, which began in early 2023, has entered its final stretch or is preparing for a new phase of price discovery.
Historically, Bitcoin bull runs have culminated in sharp, “blow-off” tops roughly 18 months after halving events, a timeline that points toward late 2025.
Yet, as analyst Rekt Capital noted last month, BTC’s market cycles are lengthening, suggesting this rally may still have room to run.
“It’s unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked because that would make this one of the shortest cycles ever,” Rekt Capital said, adding that Bitcoin might soon enter a “price discovery uptrend.”
Severino, however, believes the next few months will be decisive. “This has the potential to send Bitcoin parabolic — or put an end to the three-year bull rally,” he said.
Bitcoin Surges Past $125K, Matching Gold’s Safe-Haven Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC), often dubbed “digital gold,” has mirrored gold’s recent surge, soaring past $125,000 over the weekend in its strongest October rally on record.
The leading cryptocurrency is drawing billions in ETF inflows, and JPMorgan analysts now project BTC could reach $165,000 by year-end if momentum continues.
“The more institutional dollars experience Bitcoin returning toward all-time highs after dips, the more comfortable they’ll become as long-term holders,” said Timot Lamarre, Head of Market Research at Unchained, a Bitcoin-native financial services firm managing over $11 billion in assets.
“If debasement is viewed as structural rather than temporary, Bitcoin could be entering its next major revaluation phase.”
As reported, mounting fiscal uncertainty in major economies is accelerating a shift into Bitcoin, gold, and silver, as investors brace for further currency debasement.
The so-called “debasement trade” has gained traction amid rising national debts and political instability, prompting a broad retreat from fiat assets.
The post Analyst: Bitcoin Could Turn Parabolic or End Bull Run Within 100 Days appeared first on Cryptonews.
