Bitcoin’s recovery could remain sluggish as long-term holders continue offloading their positions, creating persistent sell-side pressure across the market, according to analysts.
Key Takeaways:
Long-term Bitcoin holders are cashing out, creating sustained sell pressure that’s slowing the market’s recovery. On-chain data shows realized profits hit $1.7B per day while revived supply from old wallets reached $2.9B. Analysts say Bitcoin remains supported near $108,700, but resistance above $110,000 could limit upside.On Sunday, analyst James Check said that the recent weakness in crypto prices has little to do with market manipulation or “paper Bitcoin,” and everything to do with long-term investors taking profits.
“It’s just good old-fashioned sellers,” he noted, adding that this wave of profit-taking has become “the source of resistance” preventing Bitcoin from breaking higher.
On-Chain Data Shows Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Cashing Out
Check’s on-chain analysis showed that the average age of spent coins has been rising, a sign that seasoned holders, rather than short-term speculators, are cashing out.
Another chart revealed that realized profits surged to $1.7 billion per day, while realized losses hit $430 million, marking the third-highest level of realized losses in the current cycle.
Additionally, revived supply from dormant wallets reached nearly $2.9 billion per day, indicating that long-held coins are actively reentering circulation.
Crypto investor Will Clemente echoed this observation, saying that Bitcoin’s past year of relative weakness reflects a transfer of supply from early holders (“OGs”) to institutional investors.
“This dynamic will be mostly irrelevant in the coming years,” he said, suggesting that traditional finance accumulation could stabilize long-term market structure.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz agreed, telling Raoul Pal in a recent interview that many long-time Bitcoin holders are finally taking profits after years of gains.
“There are a lot of people who’ve been in Bitcoin so long and finally decided, ‘I want to buy something,’” he said, mentioning friends who purchased luxury assets such as yachts and sports teams.
Despite the selling pressure, Bitcoin has held key support at $108,700 in its weekly close, according to TradingView data.
Market analyst Rekt Capital said that maintaining stability above this level could pave the way for a push toward $120,000.
As of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $110,000, facing resistance just above that mark amid an increasingly divided market between profit-takers and patient holders.
Crypto Fear Index Plunges as Bitcoin Slides to $110K
The crypto market has sunk into “Extreme Fear”, with sentiment collapsing in just one week.
According to Alternative.me, the Fear & Greed Index dropped from 64 (Greed) to 22, while CoinMarketCap’s index fell to 28 from 54, signaling widespread risk aversion among traders.
Bitcoin has struggled to hold the $110,000 level amid renewed US–China trade tensions, while gold surged to record highs above $4,230 per ounce, underscoring the flight to safety.
On-chain data added to the bearish tone, with long-term holders selling 265,700 BTC in the past month, the largest outflow since January.
Trader Tony “The Bull” Severino believes the next 100 days could determine whether the cryptocurrency enters a parabolic rally or ends its current bull cycle.
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