Gemini Exchange Prepares for Prediction Market Contracts Launch: Bloomberg

Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss’ Gemini exchange is planning to launch prediction market contracts, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.

If approved by the US derivatives regulator, Gemini would compete with dominant players, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

Sources noted that the billionaire brothers-run crypto platform has discussed launching products “as soon as possible.”

Gemini Awaits US Regulatory Approval, Which May Take Months or Years

The exchange, in May, applied to create a designated contract market with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Gemini is considering listing prediction-based derivatives contracts on the platform.

However, the US derivatives regulator can take months or years to approve a new exchange. Additionally, the recent government shutdown could further delay the approval process.

Gemini closed its initial public offering (IPO) in September, pulling in $425 million, marking one of the strongest debuts for a digital asset platform.

At the time, the New York-based firm teased this new venture in a filing that it intended to launch event contracts for “economic, financial, political and sports forecasts.”

Prediction Markets See Massive Demand

The move comes amid growing demand for prediction markets, driven by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket showing record volume growth. Kalshi is already registered with the US CFTC, while Polymarket is considering reopening in the US soon.

An analyst from investment bank Needham told Bloomberg that Gemini’s plans would expand beyond its current offerings, as prediction markets offer an “attractive opportunity.”

Elsewhere, platforms like CME Group have made their own moves into the arena. Meanwhile, crypto exchange behemoth Coinbase said in a recent earnings call that it would expand into event contracts to broaden its offerings as part of “Everything Exchange.”

Further, Robinhood said that it is launching a prediction market where users can trade on the outcome of games.

James Newman, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at Chiliz, the sports blockchain, told Cryptonews at the time that the launch is the latest signal of a growing adoption of blockchain-based fan engagement platforms.

“This is indicative of a trend we’re seeing where more and more industry players are taking notice of the prediction market space,” Newman told Cryptonews. “The challenge is how we can integrate into prediction markets sustainably, while balancing innovation with responsibility.”

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