JPMorgan analysts see Bitcoin climbing to approximately $170,000 within six to twelve months as perpetual futures deleveraging appears complete and the crypto’s volatility ratio versus gold improves to more favorable levels.
Bitcoin currently trades near $101,000, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours.
The bank’s strategists, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in a Wednesday report that crypto markets corrected nearly 20% from recent peaks following record liquidations in perpetual futures on October 10, the largest in crypto history, followed by smaller liquidations on November 3, triggered by the $128 million Balancer exploit.
JPMorgan: Bitcoin Deleveraging Phase Now Complete
Despite consecutive selloffs, JPMorgan analysts concluded that the deleveraging phase in perpetual futures has largely come to an end.
The ratio of open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures to market capitalization fell from above-average levels back to historical norms within weeks, with similar patterns visible in Ethereum markets, though less pronounced there.
“Overall, we believe that perpetual futures are the most important instruments to watch in the current juncture, and the message from the recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us,” the analysts wrote.
They added that while exchange-traded funds saw modest redemptions recently, these paled compared with inflows during the weeks ending October 3 and October 10.
The analysts also observed opposite dynamics in CME futures, where Ethereum experienced more liquidations than Bitcoin futures.
Their analysis points to perpetual futures as the critical barometer for current market conditions rather than traditional futures or ETF flows.
Gold Volatility Makes Bitcoin More Attractive
Rising gold volatility has enhanced Bitcoin’s appeal to investors on a risk-adjusted basis, according to JPMorgan’s analysis.
The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio drifted below 2.0, implying Bitcoin currently consumes about 1.8 times more risk capital than gold.
Source: NewHedgeBased on this relationship, the analysts calculated that Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion would need to rise by nearly 67%.
This implies a theoretical price of around $170,000, to match the roughly $6.2 trillion in total private-sector investment in gold through ETFs and physical holdings.
Bitcoin currently trades about $68,000 below JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted fair value relative to gold.
“This mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for bitcoin over the next 6-12 months,” the analysts stated.
The projection represents JPMorgan’s latest in a series of bullish forecasts, following similar analyses in October that estimated potential upside toward $165,000 by year-end and August projections of $126,000, a level Bitcoin surpassed when it reached an all-time high above $126,200 on October 6.
Major Institutions Signal Growing Bitcoin Adoption
Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster recently announced the $11.6 trillion firm will begin offering Bitcoin trading in the first half of 2026.
“We’re having a lot of success in the crypto space,” Wurster said in a CNBC interview. “Our clients actually own 20% of them and our clients are coming to our research site 90% more than they were last year.”
Wurster explained that most investors prefer exchange-traded products as “a safe and comfortable way for them to invest” rather than interacting directly with blockchain networks.
“We have lots of clients who have the vast majority of their assets at Schwab but are holding some at digitally native firms and keep asking us to launch this so they can bring their crypto assets to us,” he added.
Bitcoin Bulls Point to Historic Cycle Patterns
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ CIO, Tom Lee, has also recently characterized recent market weakness as liquidity-driven rather than fundamental.
“The bitcoin dip wasn’t about fundamentals—it was liquidity plus shutdown plus funding stress plus the October 10th deleveraging,” Lee said, adding that confidence needs “a couple more weeks to rebuild” but there’s “no systemic damage and no FTX-style contagion this time.“
Notably, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has also recently lowered its most bullish Bitcoin forecast to $1.2 million by 2030 from $1.5 million, citing faster-than-expected stablecoin scaling.
However, Wood remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, emphasizing growing institutional adoption and its role as a new global monetary system.
“It could at least be half” of gold’s value, Wood said, noting institutions “have just dipped their toes into this space.“
Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas also predicted Bitcoin will rise eight times to over $1 million “very shortly” to match gold’s $16 trillion private investment value.
“Bitcoin is a new global reserve asset. It will surpass gold,” Salinas stated, expressing “no doubts that it will happen very shortly.“
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