Michael Saylor’s Strategy is staring at one of its biggest tests yet as the stock risks being dropped from major benchmarks that helped pull its Bitcoin bet into mainstream portfolios.
In a note this week reported by Bloomberg, JPMorgan analysts said Strategy risked being dropped from MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. They estimated that MSCI removal alone could trigger up to $2.8B in outflows, with more if other index providers follow.
Passive funds tied to the company already account for nearly $9B in market exposure, and a decision is expected by Jan. 15.
A Potential Index Exit Challenges The Foundation Of Strategy’s Bitcoin Narrative
For a business that built its brand on wrapping Bitcoin exposure inside an equity ticker, index removal would hit more than trading volumes. It would chip away at the institutional credibility that once made Strategy a popular way for fund managers to gain regulated access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Strategy’s ascent followed a simple flywheel. The firm sold stock, bought Bitcoin, then used each rally in the token to justify more issuance and more accumulation. At the peak, its market value traded far above the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
That premium has largely disappeared and the company’s valuation now sits only slightly above the worth of its crypto reserves, a sign that investor conviction has faded.
“While active managers are not obligated to follow index changes, exclusion from major indices would certainly be viewed negatively by market participants,” JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote, pointing to risks for liquidity, funding costs and investor appeal.
MSCI’s Proposal Targets Firms Where Crypto Dominates Assets Putting Strategy At Risk
Index rules are also shifting around it. In an Oct. 10 update on its consultation, MSCI said some market participants view digital asset treasury companies as closer to investment funds, which are not eligible for index inclusion.
MSCI is proposing to exclude from its Global Investable Market Indexes any company whose digital asset holdings account for 50% or more of total assets. A spokesperson for MSCI told Bloomberg that the firm does not “speculate on future index changes.”
The pressure comes after a painful pullback in both Bitcoin and Strategy’s share price.
Following a record high in November last year, Strategy’s stock has dropped more than 60%, erasing the premium that once drew momentum traders and crypto aligned investors.
Even after that slide, the shares remain up more than 1,300% since Saylor first disclosed Bitcoin purchases in Aug. 2020, a performance that still beats every major equity index over that period.
Bitcoin’s Slide Exposes Cracks In Strategy’s Once Powerful Feedback Loop
Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from its October high, while crypto markets have lost over $1 trillion in value. Strategy’s mNAV, which tracks the ratio of enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings, has slipped to just above 1.1, suggesting the equity trades only slightly richer than the underlying coins.
The feedback loop that once rewarded every new Bitcoin purchase with a higher share price no longer works in the same way.
Even so, Saylor has not eased off the accelerator. Earlier this week, Strategy acquired 8,178 Bitcoin for $835.6m at an average price of $102,171 per coin, including fees and expenses.
The latest purchase lifts the company’s holdings to 649,870 Bitcoin as of Nov. 16, 2025, bought for a total of $48.37b at an average price of $74,433.
Investors now wait to see whether index providers and capital markets will continue to support that strategy as the crypto cycle turns.
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