Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin could drop to between $60K and $80K into year-end if the U.S. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at its policy meeting on Dec. 9-10. The BTC price has fallen sharply since the beginning of November as rate-cut expectations slipped below 50%. Experts say the decline is a “healthy recalibration rather than the start of prolonged weakness.”Bitcoin could drop to as low as $60,000 through the end of the year if the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in December, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned last week.
In a report released on Nov. 20, the firm said rate-cut odds for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next month have dropped to around 40% since the U.S. government shutdown in October forced the Bureau of Labor Statistics to cancel the monthly jobs report and delay two months of labor data.
“The December FOMC is one of the most uncertain in years,” CryptoQuant said. “With key labor indicators missing, the Fed enters the meeting with limited visibility,” it added.
“If the Fed chooses not to cut [interest rates], the logic is straightforward: inflation remains near 3%, officials worry about easing too early, and missing data make policymakers more cautious.”
CryptoQuant said the uncertainty has triggered risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin has fallen sharply since the beginning of November as rate-cut expectations slipped below 50%, with the price tanking around 24% so far this month.
Each subsequent drop in rate-cut odds has been followed by a selloff in risk assets, including tech stocks and leveraged crypto derivatives. “This scenario typically keeps liquidity tight and risk appetite muted,” the firm wrote, adding:
“If the Fed stays cautious in December, similar pressure may persist. Investors tend to reduce leverage in tight-policy periods, making volatility more sensitive to negative flows.”
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,073, up over 3% on the day but down more than 30% since its all-time high of $126,000 in early October. In the last few days, BTC has dropped to as low $80,000.
Source: The Kobeissi LetterMarket Waits for Fed Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the group of policymakers in charge of setting rates, is scheduled to meet for its final interest rate policy meeting of the year on Dec. 9-10.
After cutting rates in September and October following poor jobs reports, the FOMC is reportedly split over whether to cut rates by another 25bps for a third successive time or hold steady as inflation remains above the target range.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that it will not release the CPI inflation report for October because it failed to collect key data during the government shutdown, which lasted 43 days since Oct. 1.
It means that the FOMC will not have important employment and inflation data to consider ahead of its December meeting. Analysts say Bitcoin’s latest decline shows the asset is adjusting to a stickier monetary outlook.
“Bitcoin has already corrected meaningfully from its recent peak… so the market has started to digest this shift in expectations,” said David Arnal, a DeFi engineer at Sentora, the company previously known as IntoTheBlock.
Speaking to Cryptonews, Arnal said Bitcoin has recently posted “several bearish signals” that resemble market conditions seen before “larger, historic corrections” such as in 2018 (-77%) and 2022 (-84%).
“So, a further breakdown is possible,” he said.
Arnal pointed to at least two red flags that could push the Bitcoin price to $60,000. First, the 50-week moving average, a metric used by traders to spot bullish or bearish trends, is now curling downward.
It’s a sign that “the prior upward momentum has ‘lost its pull’ and that rallies are more likely to be sold than aggressively chased,” he explained.
Second, Arnal spoke about how Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted to a pattern of so-called “lower highs,” a movement that “we’ve seen before major distribution phases in previous cycles.”
Could $72B in Stablecoins Fuel Bitcoin Rebound?
While BTC has tanked, the market remains awash with liquidity that’s not been deployed just yet. According to CryptoQuant, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached a record of $72 billion this year.
It said all the major Bitcoin rallies in 2025 started with investors “quietly” accumulating stablecoins during periods of macro stress before rotating rather aggressively into spot Bitcoin once the uncertainty settled.
“The liquidity is there, but macro uncertainty is preventing deployment. The key variable is whether the large stablecoin reserve remains sidelined or starts moving once macro risk fades after the meeting.”
In this scenario, CryptoQuant expects that BTC will likely trade between $60,000 – $80,000 into year-end. “Downside reflects reduced risk appetite and tighter liquidity,” it said, “while the upside is capped until policy clarity returns.”
Experts say CryptoQuant’s predicted price range does not necessarily imply a return to the deeper and drawn-out bear markets of the past.
“Structural demand in this cycle is much stronger than it was in 2018 or 2022,” said Arnal, the Sentora DeFi engineer. “Regulated ETFs, more mature institutional participation and stickier long-term holders don’t remove the risk of a move toward the $60,000 area,” he added.
“But it does suggest that such a decline would be more consistent with a broad range-trading regime than a return to the kind of prolonged ‘crypto winter’ we saw in past cycles.”
Early Bitcoin investor Jordan Jefferson said the price will be influenced more by what is happening in the spot Bitcoin ETFs market, where some institutions have pulled back, as corporate treasury companies buy more.
“What I’m watching is whether institutional money keeps pulling out through ETFs,” Jefferson told Cryptonews. “November’s already at $2.3 billion in outflows. That creates real pressure if it continues.”
Jefferson, who is also the founder of Dogecoin app layer DogeOS, said Bitcoin treasury allocations could, however, work as a counterweight.
“You have companies like Strategy, holding 649,870 BTC and just bought another 8,000+ at $102,000, and more than 200 other companies treating Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset,” he said.
“These aren’t traders flipping positions, they’re building balance sheets.”
Fed Uncertainty Ties BTC Closer to Wall Street
Others, like Bitget Wallet CMO Jamie Elkaleh, see the latest volatility as a sign of Bitcoin’s growing integration with traditional markets. The drop in rate-cut expectations also shows BTC’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions.
“That link is ultimately positive for long-term adoption, even if it creates short-term pressure.” Elkaleh tells Cryptonews, adding that BTC’s decline is a “healthy recalibration rather than the start of prolonged weakness.”
Meanwhile, the odds for a Fed rate cut in December climbed from 39% to 69% on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams suggested the central bank could lower rates “in the near term” without disrupting its efforts to tame inflation, comments that markets saw as dovish.
Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal wrote on X that Williams’ comments were the number one reason the odds “massively increased.”
Coinbase Institutional also said in a report on Friday that “the odds for a rate cut are actually mispriced.”
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