Crypto exchanges and platforms are accelerating their push into prediction markets, with Gemini and PancakeSwap emerging as the latest players to roll out new offerings.
Key Takeaways:
Gemini has launched regulated prediction markets across the US following Gemini Titan’s CFTC approval. Major crypto platforms are racing to build all-in-one products as prediction markets gain momentum. PancakeSwap-backed Probable signals growing competition from decentralized prediction market platforms.Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, announced Monday that it has launched its in-house prediction platform, Gemini Predictions, across all 50 US states.
The product is offered through Gemini Titan, an affiliate that recently secured a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), clearing the way for regulated prediction markets in the country.
Gemini Launches Regulated Prediction Markets in US
Gemini’s new platform allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events with near-instant execution and transparent settlement, according to the company.
The launch follows Gemini Titan’s regulatory approval last week, marking one of the most notable US expansions of prediction markets by a major crypto exchange.
The move fits into Gemini’s broader strategy of building an “everything app” for digital assets. Alongside spot trading, the exchange has expanded into staking, rewards, tokenized stocks and now prediction markets, mirroring a wider industry trend toward all-in-one platforms.
Rivals such as Coinbase and Crypto.com have also been exploring similar expansions as competition intensifies.
Prediction markets are not limited to centralized exchanges. Decentralized platforms are moving quickly as well.
PancakeSwap on Tuesday unveiled Probable, a new prediction market incubated by the decentralized exchange and backed by YZi Labs, the venture firm founded by Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
Probable is set to launch exclusively on BNB Chain and will initially charge no fees.
According to PancakeSwap, the platform will automatically convert deposited tokens into USDT on BNB Chain, eliminating the need for users to manually swap or bridge assets. Event outcomes and settlement will be verified using UMA’s Optimistic Oracle.
While PancakeSwap is supporting the project’s early development, Probable will operate as an independent platform. A launch date has not yet been announced.
Prediction Markets Gain Traction as Volumes Hit Billions
The rapid expansion reflects growing demand for prediction markets, which gained momentum this year as platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket posted billions of dollars in monthly trading volumes beginning in October.
The trend has attracted attention from both crypto-native firms and traditional financial players, including Robinhood and MetaMask.
As reported, Kalshi has secured a major media breakthrough after signing a partnership with CNN, making the company the network’s official prediction markets partner while closing a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation.
Under the agreement, Kalshi’s real-time market data will be used inside CNN’s newsroom to support reporting on politics, economics, and major cultural events.
Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is in talks with Polymarket and Kalshi about becoming a liquidity provider, as on-chain betting on real-world events draws more attention from both retail traders and Wall Street.compliance remain unresolved.
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