On-chain data reveals that the number of active Bitcoin wallets has declined to 2023 lows, indicating that even as prices fluctuate, fewer market participants are conducting transactions.
Bitcoin price prediction metrics suggest that the price must reclaim the $100,000 psychological threshold to prevent a deep bear market decline.
Fear Index Hits Extreme Territory as Year-End Approaches
Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 11, signaling Extreme Fear.
According to a Japanese analyst at XWIN Research, fresh capital inflows into Bitcoin are beginning to diminish, and as year-end nears, both participation and capital typically become less active, further reducing market liquidity.
“In such an environment, price action tends to become more volatile due to thin liquidity. At the same time, reduced noise allows the underlying supply and demand dynamics to become clearer,” the analysts explained.
Crypto analyst Moreno also observed that Bitcoin sits at a level carrying more significance than appearances suggest.
The current $86,000 price rests above the True Market Mean Price (TMMP), which represents the average on-chain acquisition price of investors, excluding miners.
Moreno projects that if Bitcoin maintains above the TMMP ($81,500), the bull trend would be well alive.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Weekly Chart Shows Critical $81K Defense Zone
Bitcoin’s weekly chart displays a clear transition from expansion to correction following repeated failures above the $100,000 psychological resistance.
Price has definitively lost the $100,000 level and now trades below key moving averages, which have begun rolling over and functioning as dynamic resistance around the $103,000–$108,000 zone.
The most crucial structural level on the downside sits at $81,000, marked as the average cost basis support.
Source: TradingViewPrice currently hovers just above this zone, making it a critical inflection point for the broader market.
The MACD remains firmly bearish with expanding negative histogram bars, signaling downside momentum still dominates despite the recent slowdown in selling pressure.
Moreover, a sustained weekly close below $81,000 would expose the final bull-market defense near $74,000, where stronger long-term buyers are expected to emerge.
Conversely, reclaiming $100,000 and maintaining above it would be necessary to invalidate bearish momentum and reopen pathways for advancement back toward the $105,000–$110,000 range.
Pepenode Raises $2.3M Ahead of Bitcoin Post-Breakout Rally
If Bitcoin finally breaks the $100,000 resistance and initiates the 2026 bull run, meme coins like Pepenode (PEPENODE) would experience increased demand.
Pepenode is a new crypto project that’s already raised over $2.3 million despite the crypto market losing over 30% of its value since October.
It’s a game where you can mine coins without needing expensive hardware setups.
You play the game in your web browser, set up virtual mining rigs, and upgrade your facilities to earn PEPENODE tokens.
Now that more people are investing in Pepenode’s mining rigs, the presale price is advancing rapidly.
To join the presale before the ongoing round sells out, go to the official Pepenode website, and connect a crypto wallet like Best Wallet.
You can then buy PEPENODE tokens for $0.0012016 and pay with crypto using ETH or USDT, or use a bank card for fast payment.
Visit the Official Pepenode Website HereThe post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Active Wallets Drop to 2023 Lows as Liquidity Thins — Can BTC Reclaim $100K and Invalidate the Bears? appeared first on Cryptonews.
