The recent surge in privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash may reflect short-term capital rotation rather than the start of a durable bull market, according to Real Vision founder and macro investor Raoul Pal.
Key Takeaways:
Raoul Pal says Zcash’s rally so far looks like capital rotation, not a confirmed long-term uptrend. Despite a 699% gain this year, ZEC has pulled back sharply, falling about 37% over the past month. Pal says Zcash must form a stable price base before its move can be considered structural.Speaking on the When Shift Happens podcast with Kevin Follonier on Thursday, Pal said Zcash’s rally has yet to prove it represents a structural trend rather than speculative repositioning within the broader crypto market.
“Do I need that asset to say I was in earliest? I don’t really,” Pal said, suggesting that recent price action alone is not enough to justify long-term conviction.
Zcash’s 699% Rally Loses Steam as Prices Pull Back 37% in a Month
Zcash (ZEC) has posted some of the strongest gains among major cryptocurrencies this year, rising roughly 699% since Jan. 1 to trade around $385, according to CoinMarketCap.
However, momentum has faded in recent weeks, with the token down about 37% over the past 30 days.
Pal said that distinction is critical. “We can’t prove it until the whole market goes up and it continues to trend and not a rotation,” he said. “Right now it’s confirming the rotation thesis.”
According to Pal, the next key test for Zcash will be whether it can establish a stable base after its sharp move higher.
Sustained support at lower levels would indicate that buyers are stepping in with longer-term conviction, rather than exiting after a rapid run-up.
“What you want to see is whether it finds a base and then starts pulling up again,” he said.
Despite the strong year-to-date performance, Pal said he is not inclined to chase the asset at current levels. “I’m not sure I’m going to chase it, but I might buy it in the next down cycle,” he added.
Zcash’s rally has stood out in a broader market that has struggled to maintain upward momentum. The token’s market capitalization climbed from under $1 billion in August to more than $7 billion at its early November peak, even as several major cryptocurrencies traded lower.
Part of that surge followed comments from crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes, who said in late October that Zcash could eventually reach $10,000, triggering a sharp short-term price reaction.
ZEC jumped roughly 30% within 24 hours of the remarks.
Institutional Interest Moves Toward Zcash ETF
Interest in privacy-focused assets has also increased amid growing concerns around surveillance, censorship, and regulatory scrutiny.
In November, XT Exchange said anonymity-focused tokens were gaining renewed attention as traders reassessed the role of privacy in digital assets.
Institutional interest has begun to follow. On Nov. 27, Grayscale Investments filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to convert its Zcash trust into a spot ETF, signaling a potential pathway for broader investor exposure.
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